Ranking pitchers is hard. Our eyes can’t help but go to the surface-level results this season, but ERA isn’t predictive. I’d like to think that the process-level stats tell us everything, but even those statistics have some noise mixed in — and even if we think we understand the true talent of that man on the mound, pitchers fundamentally change throughout the season by altering their pitch mix or gaining/losing velocity. Throw in the difficulty of ranking quality injured pitchers with uncertain timelines, and you’ve got a real mess.
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Most qualified starting pitchers are closing in on 1,000 pitches, which is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, that’s enough sample to start using command stats like Location+ and Pitching+. Pitchers like Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Luis Castillo, and Brandon Pfaadt all benefit greatly from their ability to place a pitch where they want.
But also, 1,000 makes two separate 500-pitch groups, and Stuff+ beats strikeouts-minus-walks (the other most powerful predictive pitching statistic) in samples smaller than 500 pitches. In other words, we can compare what’s happened recently to what happened at the beginning of the season to see whose stuff is improving.
Here are the 10 pitchers who have improved their Stuff+ the most over the past three weeks:
Player | Team | Stuff+ Increase |
---|---|---|
MIA | 8.7 | |
SDP | 8.7 | |
BOS | 8.4 | |
BAL | 8.1 | |
ARI | 7.7 | |
SDP | 7.4 | |
SEA | 6.3 | |
MIN | 5.9 | |
CIN | 5.9 | |
PHI | 5.3 |
They’ve done this all in their own way. Ryan Weathers has improved the drop on his changeup. Dean Kremer has been throwing his four-seamer more often recently. Michael King has improved the ride on his four-seam. Zach Wheeler is just throwing harder — good old-fashioned gas.
On the flip side, those who have seen their stuff regress also have many reasons. Jordan Hicks was sick (he literally threw up before his last outing) but his fastball velocity is generally falling over the course of the season, Casey Mize lost extension and ride on his fastball, Hunter Greene’s slider lost some drop, and Erick Fedde lost some movement on his sinker and changeup. So it goes. It’s a bigger deal for some than others.
This sort of analysis is going on under the hood on the rankings below, but for those who want to see the recent change in Stuff+ for every pitcher, there’s always the Google doc, which also has a full projection set (thanks to Jordan Rosenblum!) and other assorted goodies like minor-league pitch-by-pitch statistics. Otherwise, included in the rankings are current rank, last rank, Stuff+, Location+, Pitching+, strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB%), Stuff+ projected ERA (ppERA) and strikeout rate (ppK%), as well as a full-season projected innings total and health grade (which are only spot-checked during the season).
A word about how to use these rankings to fit your league: My bias is toward 15-team leagues where most teams have eight to nine starting pitchers, of which a couple can be injured. That may seem specific but it describes most of my leagues, so you’ll see pockets that make sense in this regard. Why is there a group of injured, rehabbing or minor-league pitchers ranked around 100? Because I think those guys are worth rostering in my kinds of leagues, as one of my last couple of arms. After that grouping, you’ll find some pitchers who are streamable in most of my leagues, and their immediate schedule should become a deciding factor for most of you. The shallower your league, the more you should downgrade the injured players — and probably also the steady, unspectacular innings sources who are more important in deeper leagues. There are probably good options on your waiver wire. The deeper your league, the more you’ll want to favor the projections and full-season value of a pitcher over immediate use.
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1
Zack Wheeler
2
Last Rank
Blurb Process
We have a new number one! The top three seem a to be a cut above the rest, but the Phillies will give a ton of wins to Wheeler, whose stuff is trending up. In his last start, the Phillies ace averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball, and he's been trending north of 95 ever since he started out the season with some up and down numbers on the radar gun. Sure, there are others with gaudier strike-minus-walk numbers, and those with better stuff ratings. But Wheeler has a great team situation and is putting up length, going six or more innings in seven of his ten starts so far this season. Those wins are harder and harder to get and nudge him to the top of the heap.
Blurb Process
We have a new number one! The top three seem a to be a cut above the rest, but the Phillies will give a ton of wins to Wheeler, whose stuff is trending up. In his last start, the Phillies ace averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball, and he's been trending north of 95 ever since he started out the season with some up and down numbers on the radar gun. Sure, there are others with gaudier strike-minus-walk numbers, and those with better stuff ratings. But Wheeler has a great team situation and is putting up length, going six or more innings in seven of his ten starts so far this season. Those wins are harder and harder to get and nudge him to the top of the heap.
We have a new number one! The top three seem a to be a cut above the rest, but the Phillies will give a ton of wins to Wheeler, whose stuff is trending up. In his last start, the Phillies ace averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball, and he's been trending north of 95 ever since he started out the season with some up and down numbers on the radar gun. Sure, there are others with gaudier strike-minus-walk numbers, and those with better stuff ratings. But Wheeler has a great team situation and is putting up length, going six or more innings in seven of his ten starts so far this season. Those wins are harder and harder to get and nudge him to the top of the heap.
Stuff+
103
Location+
106
Pitching+
109
K-BB%
0.2131
Health
F
Proj. IP
197
ppERA
3.65
ppK%
25.6%
PHI
2
Tarik Skubal
3
Last Rank
Blurb Process
There isn't really anything negative to say about Skubal, but if you're not going to rank him first, you have to pick the nits. The sligthly concerning injury history is one thing, and though he's won six of his nine starts, the offense behind him isn't of the quality of the other three contenders for the best pitcher in baseball going forward. That's it! The velocity on the fastball is going in the right direction, he's morphing into a true five-pitch guy with command, and if the Tigers stay in it, they'll be tempted to get as many innings out of their young starter as they can.
Blurb Process
There isn't really anything negative to say about Skubal, but if you're not going to rank him first, you have to pick the nits. The sligthly concerning injury history is one thing, and though he's won six of his nine starts, the offense behind him isn't of the quality of the other three contenders for the best pitcher in baseball going forward. That's it! The velocity on the fastball is going in the right direction, he's morphing into a true five-pitch guy with command, and if the Tigers stay in it, they'll be tempted to get as many innings out of their young starter as they can.
There isn't really anything negative to say about Skubal, but if you're not going to rank him first, you have to pick the nits. The sligthly concerning injury history is one thing, and though he's won six of his nine starts, the offense behind him isn't of the quality of the other three contenders for the best pitcher in baseball going forward. That's it! The velocity on the fastball is going in the right direction, he's morphing into a true five-pitch guy with command, and if the Tigers stay in it, they'll be tempted to get as many innings out of their young starter as they can.
Stuff+
105
Location+
105
Pitching+
108
K-BB%
0.2775
Health
D
Proj. IP
163
ppERA
3.42
ppK%
26.6%
DET
3
Corbin Burnes
1
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Because he doesn't quite have the strikeout-minus-walk excellence of the other three starters atop the heap, Burnes moves down from his throne. His stuff should turn into more strikeouts as we move forward, as you can see from his last start: an 11 strikeout, one walk masterpiece against the Mariners. If that happens, moving him off the top will have been the wrong move, because his team situation and health grade combo seems as good as anyone's.
Blurb Process
Because he doesn't quite have the strikeout-minus-walk excellence of the other three starters atop the heap, Burnes moves down from his throne. His stuff should turn into more strikeouts as we move forward, as you can see from his last start: an 11 strikeout, one walk masterpiece against the Mariners. If that happens, moving him off the top will have been the wrong move, because his team situation and health grade combo seems as good as anyone's.
Because he doesn't quite have the strikeout-minus-walk excellence of the other three starters atop the heap, Burnes moves down from his throne. His stuff should turn into more strikeouts as we move forward, as you can see from his last start: an 11 strikeout, one walk masterpiece against the Mariners. If that happens, moving him off the top will have been the wrong move, because his team situation and health grade combo seems as good as anyone's.
Stuff+
119
Location+
104
Pitching+
110
K-BB%
0.1923
Health
A
Proj. IP
197
ppERA
3.55
ppK%
24.8%
BAL
4
Tyler Glasnow
4
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Pound for pound, Glasnow might be the best starting pitcher in baseball. A new sinker might be helping him avoid homers more often this season, he's still got the gas and all the strikeouts of an ace and his team situation is very conducive to wins. It's hard to judge how many pounds of Glasnow you'll get, though, and how to assess one of the bigger injury risks in baseball while he's still healthy.
Blurb Process
Pound for pound, Glasnow might be the best starting pitcher in baseball. A new sinker might be helping him avoid homers more often this season, he's still got the gas and all the strikeouts of an ace and his team situation is very conducive to wins. It's hard to judge how many pounds of Glasnow you'll get, though, and how to assess one of the bigger injury risks in baseball while he's still healthy.
Pound for pound, Glasnow might be the best starting pitcher in baseball. A new sinker might be helping him avoid homers more often this season, he's still got the gas and all the strikeouts of an ace and his team situation is very conducive to wins. It's hard to judge how many pounds of Glasnow you'll get, though, and how to assess one of the bigger injury risks in baseball while he's still healthy.
Stuff+
117
Location+
102
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.2708
Health
F
Proj. IP
142
ppERA
3.04
ppK%
31.0%
LAD
5
Chris Sale
14
Last Rank
Blurb Process
You could maybe copy the Glasnow blurb and put it here. We see the excellence Sale is putting out there and it's easy to forget that he put up 150 innings over the past three seasons combined. It may seem like that's not fair — he did throw 102 2/3 innings last season — but other indicators are a little worrisome for Sale as well. The difference between his maximum velocity and sitting number is the second-smallest it's been in his career, and at 2.5 mph, it's less than the recommended three ticks that should sit between a pitcher's max and sitting velos. This sort of thing has been linked to pitcher injury in the past.
Blurb Process
You could maybe copy the Glasnow blurb and put it here. We see the excellence Sale is putting out there and it's easy to forget that he put up 150 innings over the past three seasons combined. It may seem like that's not fair — he did throw 102 2/3 innings last season — but other indicators are a little worrisome for Sale as well. The difference between his maximum velocity and sitting number is the second-smallest it's been in his career, and at 2.5 mph, it's less than the recommended three ticks that should sit between a pitcher's max and sitting velos. This sort of thing has been linked to pitcher injury in the past.
You could maybe copy the Glasnow blurb and put it here. We see the excellence Sale is putting out there and it's easy to forget that he put up 150 innings over the past three seasons combined. It may seem like that's not fair — he did throw 102 2/3 innings last season — but other indicators are a little worrisome for Sale as well. The difference between his maximum velocity and sitting number is the second-smallest it's been in his career, and at 2.5 mph, it's less than the recommended three ticks that should sit between a pitcher's max and sitting velos. This sort of thing has been linked to pitcher injury in the past.
Stuff+
109
Location+
102
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.2718
Health
F
Proj. IP
141
ppERA
3.51
ppK%
28.5%
ATL
6
Freddy Peralta
5
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Peralta has absolutely picked up where he left off last season, at least when it comes to stuff and strikeouts-minus-walks. The results haven't been exactly as expected because that nagging flaw of his — inconsistent command — has reared its head a couple of times this season and hurt him. Really, though, that's two games where he lost the plate. Remove those and he has a 3.40 ERA and is humming right along.
Blurb Process
Peralta has absolutely picked up where he left off last season, at least when it comes to stuff and strikeouts-minus-walks. The results haven't been exactly as expected because that nagging flaw of his — inconsistent command — has reared its head a couple of times this season and hurt him. Really, though, that's two games where he lost the plate. Remove those and he has a 3.40 ERA and is humming right along.
Peralta has absolutely picked up where he left off last season, at least when it comes to stuff and strikeouts-minus-walks. The results haven't been exactly as expected because that nagging flaw of his — inconsistent command — has reared its head a couple of times this season and hurt him. Really, though, that's two games where he lost the plate. Remove those and he has a 3.40 ERA and is humming right along.
Stuff+
111
Location+
96
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.2293
Health
C
Proj. IP
165
ppERA
3.51
ppK%
28.9%
MIL
7
George Kirby
8
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Tinkerer or savant? You can see all the new stuff Kirby is doing this year — the new splitter, the new cutter, the occasional knuckleball — and think that he's searching for something. His results have been up and down, so the criticism is fair. Another way of seeing it, though, is that he's building and improving. His Stuff+ is up over the past two weeks, as he's been showing five above-average pitches by that metric. And he's always had the elite command.
Blurb Process
Tinkerer or savant? You can see all the new stuff Kirby is doing this year — the new splitter, the new cutter, the occasional knuckleball — and think that he's searching for something. His results have been up and down, so the criticism is fair. Another way of seeing it, though, is that he's building and improving. His Stuff+ is up over the past two weeks, as he's been showing five above-average pitches by that metric. And he's always had the elite command.
Tinkerer or savant? You can see all the new stuff Kirby is doing this year — the new splitter, the new cutter, the occasional knuckleball — and think that he's searching for something. His results have been up and down, so the criticism is fair. Another way of seeing it, though, is that he's building and improving. His Stuff+ is up over the past two weeks, as he's been showing five above-average pitches by that metric. And he's always had the elite command.
Stuff+
104
Location+
106
Pitching+
107
K-BB%
0.213
Health
A
Proj. IP
191
ppERA
3.66
ppK%
22.6%
SEA
8
Logan Gilbert
9
Last Rank
Blurb Process
He started with elite extension and what was supposed to be a plus-plus curveball. A couple of years later, he's still releasing the ball closer to the plate than anyone, but he's finally put together an arsenal around that fastball that's working really well. The curve is now almost 8 mph harder, with less drop, the slider has gotten harder, and the split-finger is a real weapon. Batters are hitting .205 off his newest pitch, the cutter, and Gilbert looks like he's coming into his own.
Blurb Process
He started with elite extension and what was supposed to be a plus-plus curveball. A couple of years later, he's still releasing the ball closer to the plate than anyone, but he's finally put together an arsenal around that fastball that's working really well. The curve is now almost 8 mph harder, with less drop, the slider has gotten harder, and the split-finger is a real weapon. Batters are hitting .205 off his newest pitch, the cutter, and Gilbert looks like he's coming into his own.
He started with elite extension and what was supposed to be a plus-plus curveball. A couple of years later, he's still releasing the ball closer to the plate than anyone, but he's finally put together an arsenal around that fastball that's working really well. The curve is now almost 8 mph harder, with less drop, the slider has gotten harder, and the split-finger is a real weapon. Batters are hitting .205 off his newest pitch, the cutter, and Gilbert looks like he's coming into his own.
Stuff+
122
Location+
100
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1928
Health
A
Proj. IP
187
ppERA
3.66
ppK%
24.6%
SEA
9
Dylan Cease
13
Last Rank
Blurb Process
The last outing wasn't great, and sometimes his command will lead to blowups, but the top-end stuff coming from the arm of Cease is enough to sneak him into the top 10 anyway. He could use a third pitch that he can command, but he's only throwing about a cutter (and five or six curves and sweepers) per game. Usually a top-five finisher in strikeout rate based on how elite his fastball and slider are, his team situation is better this year, and the combination of wins and Ks should keep him in the top 10 among fantasy starting pitchers.
Blurb Process
The last outing wasn't great, and sometimes his command will lead to blowups, but the top-end stuff coming from the arm of Cease is enough to sneak him into the top 10 anyway. He could use a third pitch that he can command, but he's only throwing about a cutter (and five or six curves and sweepers) per game. Usually a top-five finisher in strikeout rate based on how elite his fastball and slider are, his team situation is better this year, and the combination of wins and Ks should keep him in the top 10 among fantasy starting pitchers.
The last outing wasn't great, and sometimes his command will lead to blowups, but the top-end stuff coming from the arm of Cease is enough to sneak him into the top 10 anyway. He could use a third pitch that he can command, but he's only throwing about a cutter (and five or six curves and sweepers) per game. Usually a top-five finisher in strikeout rate based on how elite his fastball and slider are, his team situation is better this year, and the combination of wins and Ks should keep him in the top 10 among fantasy starting pitchers.
Stuff+
120
Location+
100
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.2452
Health
A
Proj. IP
178
ppERA
3.64
ppK%
28.7%
SDP
10
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
12
Last Rank
Blurb Process
The shorter outings in the World Baseball Classic may have caused Yamamoto's fastball to look better than they should've. That pitch is now more adequate than dominant. The good news is that the command looks plus, and the curve and splitter are as good as they looked in that competition, and that he's working to add a hard slider and new sinker to complete his repetoire. The bad news is that stuff-based projections don't quite believe in his current strikeout rate.
Blurb Process
The shorter outings in the World Baseball Classic may have caused Yamamoto's fastball to look better than they should've. That pitch is now more adequate than dominant. The good news is that the command looks plus, and the curve and splitter are as good as they looked in that competition, and that he's working to add a hard slider and new sinker to complete his repetoire. The bad news is that stuff-based projections don't quite believe in his current strikeout rate.
The shorter outings in the World Baseball Classic may have caused Yamamoto's fastball to look better than they should've. That pitch is now more adequate than dominant. The good news is that the command looks plus, and the curve and splitter are as good as they looked in that competition, and that he's working to add a hard slider and new sinker to complete his repetoire. The bad news is that stuff-based projections don't quite believe in his current strikeout rate.
Stuff+
101
Location+
105
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.2228
Health
B
Proj. IP
166
ppERA
3.70
ppK%
25.2%
LAD
11
Pablo López
10
Last Rank
Blurb Process
The strikeouts and walks are trending in an absolutely elite direction for Lopez. He's struck out a whopping 34 batters in his last 28 2/3 innings against only three walks. That's normally how you put zeroes on the board: strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the most powerful predictive stats we have in pitching. Why has he had the blowups? It's possible he's just trying to land on the mix that will work for him this year. Batters are slugging over .500 on his sinker and slider, so it might be time to return to his traditional strengths in the four-seam and changeup.
Blurb Process
The strikeouts and walks are trending in an absolutely elite direction for Lopez. He's struck out a whopping 34 batters in his last 28 2/3 innings against only three walks. That's normally how you put zeroes on the board: strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the most powerful predictive stats we have in pitching. Why has he had the blowups? It's possible he's just trying to land on the mix that will work for him this year. Batters are slugging over .500 on his sinker and slider, so it might be time to return to his traditional strengths in the four-seam and changeup.
The strikeouts and walks are trending in an absolutely elite direction for Lopez. He's struck out a whopping 34 batters in his last 28 2/3 innings against only three walks. That's normally how you put zeroes on the board: strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the most powerful predictive stats we have in pitching. Why has he had the blowups? It's possible he's just trying to land on the mix that will work for him this year. Batters are slugging over .500 on his sinker and slider, so it might be time to return to his traditional strengths in the four-seam and changeup.
Stuff+
98
Location+
102
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.2475
Health
C
Proj. IP
186
ppERA
3.80
ppK%
24.5%
MIN
12
Grayson Rodriguez
6
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Rodriguez owns five elite pitches by Stuff+. He commands three of them (the four-seamer, slider, and curve) at above-average rates. He's also 35th in strikeout rate among the 150 starters with at least 20 innings without any sort of obvious trend in the right direction. For now, he's got the ERA of an elite starter and the WHIP of a mediocre one. The advanced metrics say the ERA is more real, but it is fair to wonder how close to his ceiling Rodriguez finds himself currently.
Blurb Process
Rodriguez owns five elite pitches by Stuff+. He commands three of them (the four-seamer, slider, and curve) at above-average rates. He's also 35th in strikeout rate among the 150 starters with at least 20 innings without any sort of obvious trend in the right direction. For now, he's got the ERA of an elite starter and the WHIP of a mediocre one. The advanced metrics say the ERA is more real, but it is fair to wonder how close to his ceiling Rodriguez finds himself currently.
Rodriguez owns five elite pitches by Stuff+. He commands three of them (the four-seamer, slider, and curve) at above-average rates. He's also 35th in strikeout rate among the 150 starters with at least 20 innings without any sort of obvious trend in the right direction. For now, he's got the ERA of an elite starter and the WHIP of a mediocre one. The advanced metrics say the ERA is more real, but it is fair to wonder how close to his ceiling Rodriguez finds himself currently.
Stuff+
118
Location+
101
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.1726
Health
C
Proj. IP
166
ppERA
3.75
ppK%
25.3%
BAL
13
Luis Castillo
11
Last Rank
Blurb Process
As he does, Castillo is once again showing the same slow increase in fastball velocity as the weather warms. He usually rewards those that believe that his stuff just improves over the course of a season. What's weird about this year's version is that it's not the fastball that's suffering in the early going — it's the slider. It's gone from having more movement than average to being below average in that regard, and even if the changes are small when it comes to raw inches lost, they've caused the Stuff+ on the pitch to tank. Batters aren't hitting the pitch well, though, so it could just be another weird blip in the story of Castillo's stuff.
Blurb Process
As he does, Castillo is once again showing the same slow increase in fastball velocity as the weather warms. He usually rewards those that believe that his stuff just improves over the course of a season. What's weird about this year's version is that it's not the fastball that's suffering in the early going — it's the slider. It's gone from having more movement than average to being below average in that regard, and even if the changes are small when it comes to raw inches lost, they've caused the Stuff+ on the pitch to tank. Batters aren't hitting the pitch well, though, so it could just be another weird blip in the story of Castillo's stuff.
As he does, Castillo is once again showing the same slow increase in fastball velocity as the weather warms. He usually rewards those that believe that his stuff just improves over the course of a season. What's weird about this year's version is that it's not the fastball that's suffering in the early going — it's the slider. It's gone from having more movement than average to being below average in that regard, and even if the changes are small when it comes to raw inches lost, they've caused the Stuff+ on the pitch to tank. Batters aren't hitting the pitch well, though, so it could just be another weird blip in the story of Castillo's stuff.
Stuff+
99
Location+
107
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.2073
Health
B
Proj. IP
195
ppERA
3.79
ppK%
24.6%
SEA
14
Logan Webb
7
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Webb's vaunted changeup is ... changing. In the past few starts, it's become more horizontal than vertical. That can happen from time to time on a feel pitch like this, but when it's paired with the worst seasonal slugging percentage against the pitch, it becomes a little worrisome. Then you look a little harder at the poor strikeout-minus-walk numbers and wonder a little more how safe he is away from home. He'll probably get the changeup back working again, though.
Blurb Process
Webb's vaunted changeup is ... changing. In the past few starts, it's become more horizontal than vertical. That can happen from time to time on a feel pitch like this, but when it's paired with the worst seasonal slugging percentage against the pitch, it becomes a little worrisome. Then you look a little harder at the poor strikeout-minus-walk numbers and wonder a little more how safe he is away from home. He'll probably get the changeup back working again, though.
Webb's vaunted changeup is ... changing. In the past few starts, it's become more horizontal than vertical. That can happen from time to time on a feel pitch like this, but when it's paired with the worst seasonal slugging percentage against the pitch, it becomes a little worrisome. Then you look a little harder at the poor strikeout-minus-walk numbers and wonder a little more how safe he is away from home. He'll probably get the changeup back working again, though.
Stuff+
110
Location+
100
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.1195
Health
A
Proj. IP
201
ppERA
3.39
ppK%
22.0%
SFG
15
Paul Skenes
64
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Fastball go brrrrrrr. After some bellyaching about the shape of Skenes' fastball, he had a great two-start debut that featured good command of a super-hard two-seamer that doesn't seem to be a problem. Stuff+ loves it (113, top 25 among starters) and the release point, spin and movement all mimic the fastball thrown by Sale (allbeit from the right side). Another movement- and velocity-based comparison is Jhoan Duran, except as a starting pitcher. Skenes probably only has another 90 innings left in his season, but here's betting they're elite.
Blurb Process
Fastball go brrrrrrr. After some bellyaching about the shape of Skenes' fastball, he had a great two-start debut that featured good command of a super-hard two-seamer that doesn't seem to be a problem. Stuff+ loves it (113, top 25 among starters) and the release point, spin and movement all mimic the fastball thrown by Sale (allbeit from the right side). Another movement- and velocity-based comparison is Jhoan Duran, except as a starting pitcher. Skenes probably only has another 90 innings left in his season, but here's betting they're elite.
Fastball go brrrrrrr. After some bellyaching about the shape of Skenes' fastball, he had a great two-start debut that featured good command of a super-hard two-seamer that doesn't seem to be a problem. Stuff+ loves it (113, top 25 among starters) and the release point, spin and movement all mimic the fastball thrown by Sale (allbeit from the right side). Another movement- and velocity-based comparison is Jhoan Duran, except as a starting pitcher. Skenes probably only has another 90 innings left in his season, but here's betting they're elite.
Stuff+
111
Location+
103
Pitching+
111
K-BB%
0.3846
Proj. IP
105
ppERA
3.21
ppK%
29.3%
PIT
16
Shota Imanaga
20
Last Rank
Blurb Process
How much should we worry about things that haven't mattered yet? Specifically, should we focus on the fact that Imanaga is largely a two-pitch guy and batters are hitting over .300 against the rest of his offerings? Should we worry that his homer-prone ways in Japan haven't ported over to MLB yet? The projection systems that haven't budged much on projected home run rates say Imanaga's ERA will be over four the rest of the way — everyone else thinks that's crazy.
Blurb Process
How much should we worry about things that haven't mattered yet? Specifically, should we focus on the fact that Imanaga is largely a two-pitch guy and batters are hitting over .300 against the rest of his offerings? Should we worry that his homer-prone ways in Japan haven't ported over to MLB yet? The projection systems that haven't budged much on projected home run rates say Imanaga's ERA will be over four the rest of the way — everyone else thinks that's crazy.
How much should we worry about things that haven't mattered yet? Specifically, should we focus on the fact that Imanaga is largely a two-pitch guy and batters are hitting over .300 against the rest of his offerings? Should we worry that his homer-prone ways in Japan haven't ported over to MLB yet? The projection systems that haven't budged much on projected home run rates say Imanaga's ERA will be over four the rest of the way — everyone else thinks that's crazy.
Stuff+
96
Location+
106
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.2344
Health
B
Proj. IP
163
ppERA
4.00
ppK%
24.9%
CHC
17
Aaron Nola
23
Last Rank
Blurb Process
The ERA is sparkling, but there are some weird things going on under the hood for Nola this season. For one, his current walk and strikeout rates would be the worst of the past four seasons. He's also lost ride on all three of his fastballs, and a little drop on his curve. After three years of seeing his ERA live a half run above his estimators, maybe Nola will just have a strange season in the other direction that evens the balance. He'll always give you bulk and wins at the very least.
Blurb Process
The ERA is sparkling, but there are some weird things going on under the hood for Nola this season. For one, his current walk and strikeout rates would be the worst of the past four seasons. He's also lost ride on all three of his fastballs, and a little drop on his curve. After three years of seeing his ERA live a half run above his estimators, maybe Nola will just have a strange season in the other direction that evens the balance. He'll always give you bulk and wins at the very least.
The ERA is sparkling, but there are some weird things going on under the hood for Nola this season. For one, his current walk and strikeout rates would be the worst of the past four seasons. He's also lost ride on all three of his fastballs, and a little drop on his curve. After three years of seeing his ERA live a half run above his estimators, maybe Nola will just have a strange season in the other direction that evens the balance. He'll always give you bulk and wins at the very least.
Stuff+
97
Location+
106
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1628
Health
B
Proj. IP
195
ppERA
3.79
ppK%
24.6%
PHI
18
Zac Gallen
16
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Slowly, Gallen has added his missing velocity back on the four-seamer. He's also dialed the usage back recently and leaned heavily on the curve, which Stuff+ says is his best pitch. Over the past couple of weeks, his stuff looks largely back to normal, with above-average numbers on his fastballs and breaking balls. At this point, his long track record and decent strikeout-minus-walk rate mean more than any of this, though. Just keeps on ticking.
Blurb Process
Slowly, Gallen has added his missing velocity back on the four-seamer. He's also dialed the usage back recently and leaned heavily on the curve, which Stuff+ says is his best pitch. Over the past couple of weeks, his stuff looks largely back to normal, with above-average numbers on his fastballs and breaking balls. At this point, his long track record and decent strikeout-minus-walk rate mean more than any of this, though. Just keeps on ticking.
Slowly, Gallen has added his missing velocity back on the four-seamer. He's also dialed the usage back recently and leaned heavily on the curve, which Stuff+ says is his best pitch. Over the past couple of weeks, his stuff looks largely back to normal, with above-average numbers on his fastballs and breaking balls. At this point, his long track record and decent strikeout-minus-walk rate mean more than any of this, though. Just keeps on ticking.
Stuff+
96
Location+
99
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.2
Health
A
Proj. IP
196
ppERA
3.86
ppK%
24.1%
ARI
19
Jared Jones
29
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Among all starting pitchers with 30 innings so far this season, Jones has the best Stuff+ in baseball. That's softened a bit as he's settled into the season — his velocity is down a little off his near-triple-digit peak, and he's experiment a little with his other pitches start to start — but he's still got a nasty foundation in that fastball and slider that elicit Spencer Strider comparisons. The only real question is if his command will hold, especially as he starts to throw his changeup and curve more to keep people from sitting on any one pitch and location.
Blurb Process
Among all starting pitchers with 30 innings so far this season, Jones has the best Stuff+ in baseball. That's softened a bit as he's settled into the season — his velocity is down a little off his near-triple-digit peak, and he's experiment a little with his other pitches start to start — but he's still got a nasty foundation in that fastball and slider that elicit Spencer Strider comparisons. The only real question is if his command will hold, especially as he starts to throw his changeup and curve more to keep people from sitting on any one pitch and location.
Among all starting pitchers with 30 innings so far this season, Jones has the best Stuff+ in baseball. That's softened a bit as he's settled into the season — his velocity is down a little off his near-triple-digit peak, and he's experiment a little with his other pitches start to start — but he's still got a nasty foundation in that fastball and slider that elicit Spencer Strider comparisons. The only real question is if his command will hold, especially as he starts to throw his changeup and curve more to keep people from sitting on any one pitch and location.
Stuff+
133
Location+
106
Pitching+
114
K-BB%
0.2718
Proj. IP
139
ppERA
3.94
ppK%
23.4%
PIT
20
Joe Ryan
18
Last Rank
Blurb Process
With the 10th-best strikeout-minus-walk rate among starters, it's easy to see why The BAT has Ryan projected as the ninth-best starter going forward. With the growth of his splitter and sliders into a usable full arsenal, it also makes sense from a pitchability standpoint. So why the reticence to rank him higher? He's given up a full homer per nine innings more for his career than he has so far this season, and his overall Stuff+ is about average for a starter. As the weather warms, he may give up more round-trippers.
Blurb Process
With the 10th-best strikeout-minus-walk rate among starters, it's easy to see why The BAT has Ryan projected as the ninth-best starter going forward. With the growth of his splitter and sliders into a usable full arsenal, it also makes sense from a pitchability standpoint. So why the reticence to rank him higher? He's given up a full homer per nine innings more for his career than he has so far this season, and his overall Stuff+ is about average for a starter. As the weather warms, he may give up more round-trippers.
With the 10th-best strikeout-minus-walk rate among starters, it's easy to see why The BAT has Ryan projected as the ninth-best starter going forward. With the growth of his splitter and sliders into a usable full arsenal, it also makes sense from a pitchability standpoint. So why the reticence to rank him higher? He's given up a full homer per nine innings more for his career than he has so far this season, and his overall Stuff+ is about average for a starter. As the weather warms, he may give up more round-trippers.
Stuff+
94
Location+
110
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.2406
Health
B
Proj. IP
173
ppERA
4.17
ppK%
24.9%
MIN
21
Cole Ragans
19
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Remember the last young starter we all fell in love with? Is there anything wrong with him? I guess it's a little weird that his velocity peaked around 97 this year and has since fallen off in three straight starts, one of which was a disasterpiece against a bad team in Anaheim. But, other than that blowup and once against the Orioles' dastardly lineup, Ragans has been a steady producer so far. Strangely, despite good Stuff+, his projected numbers using the stat are worse than the consensus. The assumption here is he can pitch to a mid-threes ERA and that the velocity loss is just a blip.
Blurb Process
Remember the last young starter we all fell in love with? Is there anything wrong with him? I guess it's a little weird that his velocity peaked around 97 this year and has since fallen off in three straight starts, one of which was a disasterpiece against a bad team in Anaheim. But, other than that blowup and once against the Orioles' dastardly lineup, Ragans has been a steady producer so far. Strangely, despite good Stuff+, his projected numbers using the stat are worse than the consensus. The assumption here is he can pitch to a mid-threes ERA and that the velocity loss is just a blip.
Remember the last young starter we all fell in love with? Is there anything wrong with him? I guess it's a little weird that his velocity peaked around 97 this year and has since fallen off in three straight starts, one of which was a disasterpiece against a bad team in Anaheim. But, other than that blowup and once against the Orioles' dastardly lineup, Ragans has been a steady producer so far. Strangely, despite good Stuff+, his projected numbers using the stat are worse than the consensus. The assumption here is he can pitch to a mid-threes ERA and that the velocity loss is just a blip.
Stuff+
112
Location+
100
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1983
Health
C
Proj. IP
165
ppERA
4.08
ppK%
23.3%
KCR
22
Kevin Gausman
17
Last Rank
Blurb Process
It can both be true that Gausman is a good buy-low but also maybe not a top-10 or top-15 starter right now. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is above average, his fastball velocity is improving and he still has that awesome splitter. Why not rank him more in line with his projected rates? Maybe it's just a little bit concerning that he's a two-pitch pitcher with declining fastball velocity. The fewer pitches you have, the more pressure there is on each of them to be dominant.
Blurb Process
It can both be true that Gausman is a good buy-low but also maybe not a top-10 or top-15 starter right now. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is above average, his fastball velocity is improving and he still has that awesome splitter. Why not rank him more in line with his projected rates? Maybe it's just a little bit concerning that he's a two-pitch pitcher with declining fastball velocity. The fewer pitches you have, the more pressure there is on each of them to be dominant.
It can both be true that Gausman is a good buy-low but also maybe not a top-10 or top-15 starter right now. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is above average, his fastball velocity is improving and he still has that awesome splitter. Why not rank him more in line with his projected rates? Maybe it's just a little bit concerning that he's a two-pitch pitcher with declining fastball velocity. The fewer pitches you have, the more pressure there is on each of them to be dominant.
Stuff+
98
Location+
106
Pitching+
107
K-BB%
0.1684
Health
C
Proj. IP
168
ppERA
3.70
ppK%
25.7%
TOR
23
Sonny Gray
26
Last Rank
Blurb Process
The past two starts haven't been good for Gray, but there's no underlying change that points to a problem. He's got three average-ish fastballs and three elite breaking balls, and he's turned that into the fifth-best strikeout rate and the sixth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate so far. This can produce a top-25 starter, for sure.
Blurb Process
The past two starts haven't been good for Gray, but there's no underlying change that points to a problem. He's got three average-ish fastballs and three elite breaking balls, and he's turned that into the fifth-best strikeout rate and the sixth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate so far. This can produce a top-25 starter, for sure.
The past two starts haven't been good for Gray, but there's no underlying change that points to a problem. He's got three average-ish fastballs and three elite breaking balls, and he's turned that into the fifth-best strikeout rate and the sixth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate so far. This can produce a top-25 starter, for sure.
Stuff+
97
Location+
106
Pitching+
108
K-BB%
0.2711
Health
C
Proj. IP
159
ppERA
3.86
ppK%
22.8%
STL
24
Garrett Crochet
30
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Crochet stopped throwing back-foot sliders to righties and replaced them with cutters, and he's been lights out since. His fastball provides a huge foundation, the slider is still deadly against lefties, and the cutter and change do enough to say with confidence that he can get righties out. It's a power changeup with less movement than you might want, but hittters are slugging .154 off the pitch, so it's possible they're telling us more about its quality than the stuff grades. Good young pitcher — no idea how many more innings he'll give us.
Blurb Process
Crochet stopped throwing back-foot sliders to righties and replaced them with cutters, and he's been lights out since. His fastball provides a huge foundation, the slider is still deadly against lefties, and the cutter and change do enough to say with confidence that he can get righties out. It's a power changeup with less movement than you might want, but hittters are slugging .154 off the pitch, so it's possible they're telling us more about its quality than the stuff grades. Good young pitcher — no idea how many more innings he'll give us.
Crochet stopped throwing back-foot sliders to righties and replaced them with cutters, and he's been lights out since. His fastball provides a huge foundation, the slider is still deadly against lefties, and the cutter and change do enough to say with confidence that he can get righties out. It's a power changeup with less movement than you might want, but hittters are slugging .154 off the pitch, so it's possible they're telling us more about its quality than the stuff grades. Good young pitcher — no idea how many more innings he'll give us.
Stuff+
108
Location+
103
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.2788
Health
F
Proj. IP
111
ppERA
3.60
ppK%
27.6%
CHW
25
Framber Valdez
25
Last Rank
Blurb Process
There was some worry when, coming off an injured list stint, Valdez came back and allowed five runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Mariners. His sinker wasn't at its best that game, and for some reason he didn't throw his slider or changeup much at all. He's been up and down since his return, with some good news as the sinker has approached the same stuff grades as before the injury, and the changeup usage has returned to normal. The hard slider or cutter, though, the one that led to the best strikeout rate of his career last year? He doesn't throw it much, so reduce your K-rate expectations.
Blurb Process
There was some worry when, coming off an injured list stint, Valdez came back and allowed five runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Mariners. His sinker wasn't at its best that game, and for some reason he didn't throw his slider or changeup much at all. He's been up and down since his return, with some good news as the sinker has approached the same stuff grades as before the injury, and the changeup usage has returned to normal. The hard slider or cutter, though, the one that led to the best strikeout rate of his career last year? He doesn't throw it much, so reduce your K-rate expectations.
There was some worry when, coming off an injured list stint, Valdez came back and allowed five runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Mariners. His sinker wasn't at its best that game, and for some reason he didn't throw his slider or changeup much at all. He's been up and down since his return, with some good news as the sinker has approached the same stuff grades as before the injury, and the changeup usage has returned to normal. The hard slider or cutter, though, the one that led to the best strikeout rate of his career last year? He doesn't throw it much, so reduce your K-rate expectations.
Stuff+
113
Location+
96
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.137
Health
A
Proj. IP
195
ppERA
3.50
ppK%
22.7%
HOU
26
Carlos Rodón
67
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
118
Location+
98
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.1667
Health
F
Proj. IP
146
ppERA
3.93
ppK%
26.9%
NYY
27
Jack Flaherty
79
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
104
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.2936
Health
D
Proj. IP
150
ppERA
4.06
ppK%
23.2%
DET
28
Ranger Suárez
73
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
85
Location+
106
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.2192
Health
B
Proj. IP
155
ppERA
4.06
ppK%
20.8%
PHI
29
Max Fried
33
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
97
Location+
99
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.0927
Health
C
Proj. IP
155
ppERA
3.74
ppK%
22.1%
ATL
30
Yusei Kikuchi
28
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
110
Location+
104
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.2153
Health
A
Proj. IP
173
ppERA
3.85
ppK%
24.4%
TOR
31
Kyle Bradish
35
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
108
Location+
100
Pitching+
107
K-BB%
0.1803
Health
B
Proj. IP
102
ppERA
3.83
ppK%
22.7%
BAL
32
Ryan Pepiot
50
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
117
Location+
100
Pitching+
105
K-BB%
0.2128
Health
C
Proj. IP
141
ppERA
3.96
ppK%
25.5%
TBR
33
Gerrit Cole
56
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
C
Proj. IP
101
NYY
34
Tanner Houck
41
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
109
Location+
102
Pitching+
108
K-BB%
0.1957
Health
C
Proj. IP
132
ppERA
3.90
ppK%
22.4%
BOS
35
Bryce Miller
31
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
110
Location+
103
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.1739
Health
C
Proj. IP
143
ppERA
4.14
ppK%
21.8%
SEA
36
Yu Darvish
51
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
104
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.1784
Health
F
Proj. IP
161
ppERA
3.99
ppK%
23.4%
SDP
37
Walker Buehler
37
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
96
Location+
102
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.193
Health
F
Proj. IP
101
ppERA
4.07
ppK%
21.4%
LAD
38
Nick Pivetta
62
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
136
Location+
109
Pitching+
111
K-BB%
0.2828
Health
A
Proj. IP
170
ppERA
3.93
ppK%
26.7%
BOS
39
Bryan Woo
44
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
110
Location+
105
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1714
Health
C
Proj. IP
153
ppERA
3.94
ppK%
24.5%
SEA
40
Justin Steele
21
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
101
Location+
107
Pitching+
109
K-BB%
0.1605
Health
B
Proj. IP
182
ppERA
3.82
ppK%
23.2%
CHC
41
Blake Snell
24
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
111
Location+
100
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.1207
Health
C
Proj. IP
162
ppERA
3.69
ppK%
28.3%
SFG
42
Hunter Greene
42
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
127
Location+
97
Pitching+
105
K-BB%
0.1721
Health
C
Proj. IP
163
ppERA
3.88
ppK%
28.8%
CIN
43
Bobby Miller
22
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
126
Location+
95
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.24
Health
C
Proj. IP
162
ppERA
3.57
ppK%
24.8%
LAD
44
Seth Lugo
71
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
100
Location+
101
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1758
Health
F
Proj. IP
160
ppERA
4.20
ppK%
20.2%
KCR
45
Luis Gil
68
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
115
Location+
95
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.1759
Health
D
Proj. IP
105
ppERA
4.28
ppK%
25.4%
NYY
46
Kutter Crawford
59
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
106
Location+
102
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1632
Health
C
Proj. IP
148
ppERA
4.41
ppK%
23.0%
BOS
47
Jordan Hicks
38
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
113
Location+
97
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.107
Proj. IP
121
ppERA
3.44
ppK%
25.2%
SFG
48
Michael King
32
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
94
Location+
100
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.1477
Health
F
Proj. IP
142
ppERA
3.69
ppK%
26.0%
SDP
49
Reynaldo López
46
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
96
Location+
101
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.1509
Proj. IP
105
ppERA
4.00
ppK%
25.7%
ATL
50
Clarke Schmidt
89
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
112
Location+
100
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.1961
Health
C
Proj. IP
150
ppERA
3.88
ppK%
23.1%
NYY
51
MacKenzie Gore
54
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
116
Location+
101
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.191
Health
C
Proj. IP
168
ppERA
3.98
ppK%
24.8%
WSN
52
Justin Verlander
36
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
123
Location+
101
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.0863
Health
F
Proj. IP
159
ppERA
4.22
ppK%
22.7%
HOU
53
Brayan Bello
48
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
103
Location+
101
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1467
Health
C
Proj. IP
169
ppERA
4.11
ppK%
20.5%
BOS
54
Joe Musgrove
34
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
114
Location+
100
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1285
Health
C
Proj. IP
172
ppERA
3.66
ppK%
23.9%
SDP
55
Zach Eflin
15
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
94
Location+
110
Pitching+
105
K-BB%
0.1626
Health
C
Proj. IP
160
ppERA
3.73
ppK%
21.8%
TBR
56
Taj Bradley
80
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
104
Location+
96
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.2273
Health
C
Proj. IP
117
ppERA
4.18
ppK%
23.0%
TBR
57
Christian Scott
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
103
Location+
96
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1831
Proj. IP
110
ppERA
4.03
ppK%
22.9%
NYM
58
Cristopher Sánchez
55
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
97
Location+
100
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1368
Health
C
Proj. IP
142
ppERA
3.89
ppK%
20.9%
PHI
59
Nick Lodolo
43
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
103
Location+
101
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.2429
Health
C
Proj. IP
130
ppERA
3.68
ppK%
26.9%
CIN
60
Zack Littell
72
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
84
Location+
106
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.1887
Health
D
Proj. IP
146
ppERA
4.19
ppK%
20.2%
TBR
61
Tanner Bibee
66
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
102
Location+
104
Pitching+
107
K-BB%
0.181
Health
C
Proj. IP
164
ppERA
4.25
ppK%
22.2%
CLE
62
Nathan Eovaldi
58
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
103
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1488
Health
F
Proj. IP
161
ppERA
4.06
ppK%
21.8%
TEX
63
José Berríos
53
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
95
Location+
101
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1209
Health
A
Proj. IP
179
ppERA
4.21
ppK%
20.7%
TOR
64
Jesús Luzardo
47
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
99
Location+
99
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.1795
Health
C
Proj. IP
171
ppERA
3.92
ppK%
25.4%
MIA
65
Luis Severino
45
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
105
Location+
99
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.0959
Health
F
Proj. IP
141
ppERA
3.98
ppK%
22.2%
NYM
66
Brandon Pfaadt
76
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
104
Location+
107
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.183
Health
C
Proj. IP
173
ppERA
4.18
ppK%
22.4%
ARI
67
Jordan Montgomery
39
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
95
Location+
100
Pitching+
96
K-BB%
0.0629
Health
C
Proj. IP
173
ppERA
4.18
ppK%
20.2%
ARI
68
Mitch Keller
52
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
100
Location+
102
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1346
Health
A
Proj. IP
190
ppERA
4.04
ppK%
21.9%
PIT
69
Cristian Javier
61
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
113
Location+
92
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.0775
Health
A
Proj. IP
162
ppERA
4.51
ppK%
24.7%
HOU
70
Bailey Ober
81
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
90
Location+
108
Pitching+
105
K-BB%
0.2174
Health
B
Proj. IP
166
ppERA
4.34
ppK%
22.6%
MIN
71
Nestor Cortes
77
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
97
Location+
103
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.1837
Health
C
Proj. IP
145
ppERA
4.31
ppK%
23.4%
NYY
72
Jon Gray
110
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
81
Location+
103
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.1759
Health
F
Proj. IP
151
ppERA
4.44
ppK%
20.6%
TEX
73
Charlie Morton
96
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
91
Location+
99
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.1452
Health
F
Proj. IP
165
ppERA
4.28
ppK%
23.8%
ATL
74
Brady Singer
92
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
87
Location+
102
Pitching+
95
K-BB%
0.188
Health
C
Proj. IP
169
ppERA
4.27
ppK%
19.6%
KCR
75
Dean Kremer
97
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
89
Location+
101
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.172
Health
A
Proj. IP
176
ppERA
4.50
ppK%
19.6%
BAL
76
Chris Bassitt
69
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
97
Location+
100
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.1038
Health
C
Proj. IP
194
ppERA
4.24
ppK%
20.5%
TOR
77
Andrew Abbott
104
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
93
Location+
97
Pitching+
96
K-BB%
0.1324
Health
B
Proj. IP
156
ppERA
4.54
ppK%
24.0%
CIN
78
Javier Assad
78
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
89
Location+
102
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.1392
Health
B
Proj. IP
137
ppERA
4.54
ppK%
19.2%
CHC
79
Jameson Taillon
98
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
89
Location+
110
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.087
Health
F
Proj. IP
161
ppERA
4.47
ppK%
20.0%
CHC
80
Casey Mize
49
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
110
Location+
105
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.1202
Proj. IP
127
ppERA
4.11
ppK%
19.2%
DET
81
Aaron Civale
27
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
99
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1607
Health
C
Proj. IP
154
ppERA
4.03
ppK%
22.8%
TBR
82
Kyle Harrison
75
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
92
Location+
100
Pitching+
93
K-BB%
0.1299
Health
C
Proj. IP
148
ppERA
4.25
ppK%
24.8%
SFG
83
Reese Olson
100
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
91
Location+
96
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.1376
Health
C
Proj. IP
150
ppERA
4.28
ppK%
20.8%
DET
84
Chris Paddack
107
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
93
Location+
107
Pitching+
106
K-BB%
0.1659
Health
F
Proj. IP
138
ppERA
4.18
ppK%
21.1%
MIN
85
José Soriano
87
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
104
Location+
95
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.1071
Proj. IP
85
ppERA
3.91
ppK%
23.7%
LAA
86
Marcus Stroman
70
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
94
Location+
94
Pitching+
92
K-BB%
0.0806
Health
D
Proj. IP
186
ppERA
4.08
ppK%
19.6%
NYY
87
Alek Manoah
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
85
Location+
97
Pitching+
92
K-BB%
0.1733
Health
A
Proj. IP
126
ppERA
4.62
ppK%
20.6%
TOR
88
Michael Grove
123
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
C
Proj. IP
78
ppERA
3.94
ppK%
24.1%
LAD
89
Erick Fedde
116
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
103
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1698
Proj. IP
146
ppERA
4.43
ppK%
19.6%
CHW
90
Frankie Montas
91
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
103
Location+
102
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.0645
Health
F
Proj. IP
137
ppERA
4.22
ppK%
22.6%
CIN
91
Tylor Megill
153
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
99
Location+
85
Pitching+
88
K-BB%
0.0556
Health
D
Proj. IP
142
ppERA
4.19
ppK%
20.8%
NYM
92
Graham Ashcraft
99
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
114
Location+
101
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1028
Health
C
Proj. IP
171
ppERA
4.19
ppK%
19.4%
CIN
93
Reid Detmers
60
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
97
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.1784
Health
B
Proj. IP
177
ppERA
4.33
ppK%
23.9%
LAA
94
Braxton Garrett
95
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
91
Location+
96
Pitching+
91
K-BB%
0.2128
Health
A
Proj. IP
126
ppERA
3.88
ppK%
21.9%
MIA
95
Gavin Stone
101
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
94
Location+
100
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.071
Health
C
Proj. IP
101
ppERA
4.24
ppK%
21.7%
LAD
96
Sean Manaea
102
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
85
Location+
97
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.102
Health
D
Proj. IP
171
ppERA
4.24
ppK%
22.6%
NYM
97
Ronel Blanco
105
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
96
Location+
98
Pitching+
96
K-BB%
0.1263
Proj. IP
115
ppERA
4.48
ppK%
22.1%
HOU
98
Max Scherzer
93
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
D
Proj. IP
101
ppERA
4.00
ppK%
26.0%
TEX
99
Shane Baz
65
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
F
Proj. IP
111
ppERA
3.99
ppK%
23.6%
TBR
100
Max Meyer
63
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
104
Location+
101
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1692
Proj. IP
110
ppERA
3.99
ppK%
21.9%
MIA
101
Kodai Senga
84
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
C
Proj. IP
111
NYM
102
Hunter Brown
86
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
105
Location+
100
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.1117
Health
C
ppERA
3.76
ppK%
24.1%
HOU
103
David Peterson
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
C
Proj. IP
111
ppERA
3.58
ppK%
25.2%
NYM
105
Cooper Criswell
131
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
106
Location+
105
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.175
Proj. IP
86
ppERA
4.35
ppK%
18.6%
BOS
106
JP Sears
112
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
103
Location+
101
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1022
Health
A
Proj. IP
170
ppERA
4.41
ppK%
20.5%
OAK
107
Ben Brown
74
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
111
Location+
96
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1781
Proj. IP
130
ppERA
4.09
ppK%
25.2%
CHC
108
Patrick Sandoval
144
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
98
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1467
Health
B
Proj. IP
166
ppERA
4.34
ppK%
21.1%
LAA
109
Robert Gasser
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
100
Location+
98
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.119
Proj. IP
102
ppERA
4.39
ppK%
22.6%
MIL
110
Kenta Maeda
106
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
88
Location+
99
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.097
Health
F
Proj. IP
148
ppERA
4.42
ppK%
21.5%
DET
112
Edward Cabrera
40
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
100
Location+
98
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1753
Health
C
Proj. IP
121
ppERA
4.03
ppK%
25.0%
MIA
113
Lance Lynn
108
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
82
Location+
97
Pitching+
92
K-BB%
0.1139
Health
D
Proj. IP
176
ppERA
4.49
ppK%
20.3%
STL
114
John Means
145
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
86
Location+
104
Pitching+
105
K-BB%
0.2206
Health
F
Proj. IP
135
ppERA
4.64
ppK%
18.6%
BAL
115
Michael Wacha
109
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
89
Location+
102
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.1262
Health
F
Proj. IP
153
ppERA
4.71
ppK%
18.9%
KCR
116
Ryan Weathers
117
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
96
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.1038
Health
C
Proj. IP
110
ppERA
4.63
ppK%
18.5%
MIA
117
Trevor Rogers
103
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
85
Location+
102
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.0896
Health
C
Proj. IP
131
ppERA
4.29
ppK%
21.5%
MIA
119
Andrew Heaney
154
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
81
Location+
103
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1719
Health
F
Proj. IP
147
ppERA
4.48
ppK%
22.0%
TEX
120
Mitchell Parker
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
91
Location+
100
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.1406
Proj. IP
140
ppERA
5.06
ppK%
18.1%
WSN
121
Miles Mikolas
113
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
89
Location+
107
Pitching+
100
K-BB%
0.1217
Health
C
Proj. IP
184
ppERA
4.53
ppK%
16.5%
STL
122
Robbie Ray
115
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
F
Proj. IP
76
SFG
123
Clayton Kershaw
126
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
F
Proj. IP
55
LAD
124
Alec Marsh
149
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
103
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.14
Health
C
Proj. IP
62
ppERA
4.69
ppK%
19.9%
KCR
125
Simeon Woods Richardson
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
86
Location+
108
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.152
Proj. IP
93
ppERA
4.96
ppK%
17.4%
MIN
126
Triston McKenzie
121
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
102
Location+
90
Pitching+
91
K-BB%
0.0603
Health
C
Proj. IP
149
ppERA
4.48
ppK%
22.7%
CLE
127
Matt Manning
130
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
99
Location+
98
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.0894
Health
D
Proj. IP
126
ppERA
4.53
ppK%
18.9%
DET
128
Logan Allen
133
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
85
Location+
97
Pitching+
96
K-BB%
0.1222
Health
C
Proj. IP
143
ppERA
4.66
ppK%
19.2%
CLE
129
Matt Waldron
136
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
82
Location+
101
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.1407
Health
B
ppERA
4.74
ppK%
17.8%
SDP
130
Spencer Turnbull
85
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
110
Location+
100
Pitching+
101
K-BB%
0.1698
Proj. IP
120
ppERA
3.97
ppK%
22.5%
PHI
131
Eduardo Rodriguez
125
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
D
Proj. IP
148
ARI
132
Landon Knack
119
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
101
Location+
95
Pitching+
96
K-BB%
0.1205
Proj. IP
79
ppERA
4.50
ppK%
20.9%
LAD
133
Dane Dunning
114
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
86
Location+
95
Pitching+
93
K-BB%
0.1699
Health
A
Proj. IP
152
ppERA
4.39
ppK%
19.5%
TEX
134
Keaton Winn
57
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
113
Location+
99
Pitching+
104
K-BB%
0.1017
Health
C
Proj. IP
129
ppERA
3.91
ppK%
20.7%
SFG
135
Tyler Anderson
129
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
C
Proj. IP
166
ppERA
5.01
ppK%
18.0%
LAA
139
Jake Irvin
139
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
105
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.1401
Health
C
Proj. IP
124
ppERA
4.62
ppK%
18.1%
WSN
141
Tyler Mahle
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Proj. IP
30
TEX
142
Trevor Williams
158
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
82
Location+
103
Pitching+
93
K-BB%
0.116
Health
A
Proj. IP
123
ppERA
4.73
ppK%
17.7%
WSN
143
Cole Irvin
159
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
84
Location+
102
Pitching+
95
K-BB%
0.1205
Health
A
Proj. IP
119
ppERA
4.67
ppK%
16.1%
BAL
144
Kyle Gibson
161
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
91
Location+
96
Pitching+
94
K-BB%
0.0877
Health
A
Proj. IP
178
ppERA
4.34
ppK%
18.2%
STL
145
Bryce Elder
164
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
81
Location+
99
Pitching+
94
K-BB%
0.0708
Health
A
Proj. IP
147
ppERA
4.57
ppK%
17.7%
ATL
146
Paul Blackburn
111
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
93
Location+
105
Pitching+
103
K-BB%
0.1223
Health
D
Proj. IP
147
ppERA
4.34
ppK%
18.4%
OAK
147
Michael Lorenzen
146
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
98
Location+
98
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.0714
Health
F
Proj. IP
158
ppERA
4.71
ppK%
18.0%
TEX
148
Mason Black
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
94
Location+
99
Pitching+
95
K-BB%
0.0517
ppERA
4.36
ppK%
21.3%
SFG
150
Griffin Canning
128
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
86
Location+
98
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.0792
Health
F
Proj. IP
139
ppERA
4.58
ppK%
20.8%
LAA
151
Cade Horton
157
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Proj. IP
75
ppERA
4.45
ppK%
22.1%
CHC
152
Yariel Rodríguez
88
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
99
Location+
99
Pitching+
99
K-BB%
0.1111
Proj. IP
107
ppERA
4.12
ppK%
22.9%
TOR
153
Alex Cobb
142
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Health
F
Proj. IP
125
SFG
154
Joe Boyle
135
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
109
Location+
88
Pitching+
92
K-BB%
0.0465
Health
C
Proj. IP
158
ppERA
4.65
ppK%
22.8%
OAK
155
Louie Varland
118
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
102
Location+
94
Pitching+
97
K-BB%
0.1034
Health
C
Proj. IP
131
ppERA
4.21
ppK%
21.1%
MIN
156
Bowden Francis
134
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
104
Location+
97
Pitching+
102
K-BB%
0.1471
Proj. IP
111
ppERA
4.35
ppK%
22.5%
TOR
157
Ben Lively
138
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
77
Location+
103
Pitching+
96
K-BB%
0.1418
Health
C
Proj. IP
125
ppERA
4.84
ppK%
17.2%
CLE
158
Steven Matz
162
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
85
Location+
101
Pitching+
98
K-BB%
0.0472
Health
F
Proj. IP
116
ppERA
4.28
ppK%
19.9%
STL
159
Colin Rea
155
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Stuff+
85
Location+
101
Pitching+
95
K-BB%
0.0837
Health
F
Proj. IP
107
ppERA
4.36
ppK%
19.7%
MIL
160
Cade Povich
Last Rank
Blurb Process
Blurb Process
Proj. IP
83
ppERA
4.41
ppK%
21.5%
BAL
(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of Shota Imanaga: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images; Photo of Paul Skenes:
Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images; Photo of Chris Sale: Matthew Grimes Jr. / Atlanta Braves / Getty Images)
Eno Sarris is a senior writer covering baseball analytics at The Athletic. Eno has written for FanGraphs, ESPN, Fox, MLB.com, SB Nation and others. Submit mailbag questions to esarris@theathletic.com. Follow Eno on Twitter @enosarris