Squawk on the Street : CNBC : May 21, 2024 9:00am-11:00am EDT : Free Borrow & Streaming : Internet Archive (2024)

ether -- joe, watch some of those stocks getting a bid. i'll send things back over to you guys. >> i'll watch if you say please, dom. >> pretty please with sugar on top. we've got to go. make sure you join becky and andrew tomorrow -- >> andrew is off -- i think mike san toll any. pretty please with a cherry on top. we'll see you tomorrow. bye-bye. good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. david faber is on assignment. oil is down a buck and brent back to a two-month. our roadmap begins with waiting

for nvidia. chip stocks waiting to fuel record highs for tech and options point to a big swing when it reports tomorrow. the jpmorgan chase ceo an nouning his retirement may come within five years. let's begin with the markets, jim. a bit of the setup here, tech all-time high on the s&p. >> there are semiconductors yesterday that aren't even doing well or at least hinted that things are turning. texas instruments gave a sense that the stock was just on fire. micron on that -- basically capitulation call. i've missed it. i'm going positive. it worked. qualcomm on the idea that some people are looking for their chips even though they should be in abundance. yesterday was a day where bro broadcom, we're talking about a top ten company in america.

i asked jensen whether he would split the stock, the ceo of nvidia. he said, well, i'll consider it. do you know what would happen if they split that stock? a 10% move. it would be insane. it would be based on nothing. >> we'll get a 10 for 1 lrcx along with a big buyback today. >> lamb has always been much more pro shareholder than the others. i have to tell you i think lam is the intellectual property of so many -- when you say you want to build -- secretary raimundo said i wanted to build a fab, this is what america really makes. kla, lam, this is what we really do. even in taiwan semi, you go in and think it's all taiwan. it's american. >> there's a fascinating story about asml and taiwan semi being able to, what, turn off the chip

machines if china invades taiwan. >> in the event of nuclear war, we're fine. that was the strangest story. well, i didn't know we were about to go to work. if we do, thank heaven asm's big systems will still work. we can pull the plug. no, no. guys, let's not issue things like that. lam research is up 60 points on the split. warning the other people in semiconductorville, if you do a split, that's a better way to get your stork up than beat. maybe i've got to talk to da kesh about splitting the stock. >> we'll get to palo alto in a minute. breaking news from the fed and we'll turn to steve leishman. >> fed offering guardedly dovish remarks saying further increases in the policy rate are probably unnecessary. he says he needs several more

months of good inflation data before being comfortable to cut rates. the important part, he talks about progress on inflation seems to be reducing, that's on other economic data out. restrictive monetary policy he believes is helping to cool demand the data suggests progress is back on track. he does acknowledge progress was moderate. he notes that the isms were below 50. he goes on to say the consumers appear to be tempering their purchases noting flat retail sales in april along with delinquencies being on the rise. he notes the easing of labor demands seems to have resumed. rage growth is higher than he believes is consistent with a 2% target. the fed's monetary policy overall puts downward pressure on inflation. i will have a chance to ask some specific questions about these comments today with fed governor

waller at 1:00 p.m. eastern. a pretty dovish take on the recent data from a guy who used to be well known as a hawk, carl. >> steve, whether this moves the ball forward in your view more than, say, mester or daley yesterday? >> absolutely. if he ends up being right, this is the beginning of inflation t downward path, the data we've seen in april is the beginning of a moderation, then, yes, you can imagine this creating the preconditions or the beginning of creating preconditions for a rate cut. i've talked about this for a long time as a wrestler. you want to count one, two, three at least of good inflation except the wrestler keeps getting up and you have to start the count again. waller seems to be telling us essentially that april counts as one. >> steve, thanks for that good metaphor. we'll check in later. steve leishman liesman.

>> all we care about is the direction. i've been focused on red lobster, not just because of the $20 scampi, guys coming in getting 16, 17 cervix of it. that could always hurt you. there are so few companies that have gone under. 36,000 people work at red lobster, and obviously i feel bad for them and don't want to joke about people losing their jobs. they're finding jobs, the managers are getting jobs. we aren't getting the kind of bankruptcies that indicate good companies aren't doing a good job. you almost think they set out to destroy it. at one point the general counsel is running it, a bunch of different owners and onerous leasebacks. it still didn't get crushed, is still ticking. you need to see real bankruptcies from real companies

in order to get us to over 4% unemployment. and then i would feel like you start getting the three, four, five cuts. but we don't have them. >> ed yardeni yesterday, jim, looking at consumer in particular. household personal discretionary income, per household, you take out the covid spike. it's never been higher. >> i'm tired of hearing about credit card delinquencies. when i look at macy's, you can't be a quarter miracle worker. that was a really good quarter. when you look at what marvin ellison from lowes is doing -- i have him on tonight. i would say we're in trouble, the contractors aren't doing well. well, they're not doing well on the home depot side of the street. maybe it's raining there. on this side of the street with lowe's, they're doing well. i have to tell you, i keep getting shot down from the thesis of the consumer not spending. yesterday i had norwegian cruise on. try getting on a cruise.

by the way, you can get a $500 room in the middle and $1,000 outside. they're all sold out. where is this consumer weakness? >> the fact it's minus four comp at lowe's, you think that's good management. >> yes. absolutely. still better whan than what i expected. marvin has a terrific positive comp in pro which is incredible. the thing that you can say, listen, do it yourself is not that good, but we're in lawn and garden season. i have to plant this weekend or else i'm done. this is a really good quarter for lowe's. >> then you have macy's raising the guide a touch. barrons' piece, turn-around plan starting to pay off. >> i like what tony is doing. tony spring has isolated 50 macy's and said we're going to put some money in those and see if we can't turn them. those are working. the 50 had comps of 3.4%.

the ready to wear -- a lot of money in that. women's footwear and beauty were all strong. he's going to close the ones that are underperforming. they continue to do that. gwinnett came in and recognized we've got to fix the balance sheet first. that doesn't seem like anything visible. then he started adjusting the underperforming stores. some didn't work and some did. i like tony spring coming in hot, and i think if he can just close the ones that are underperforming in macy's and continue to get out of leases and continue with this plus three comp, you're going to want to own that stock at 19. i remember when dave tepper and i used to talk -- one of the billionaires -- billionaire here, billionaire there. we use stod think their online business was worth a great deal. so is the panthers even though they're not. they're a suboptimal team. i think that company is worth a

lot more than it's selling for. >> we started yesterday's show talking morgue's mike wilson removing the downside. now the stories are about marco delon vic, the last prominent bear. >> making sure his hokas are underneath the soil there. i don't know. i think that yesterday he must have felt good the dow was down, maybe he was looking at jpmorgan being down nine. being down nine at your own company -- >> he does say valuation is high, geopolitical risk, highest in a decade. he's not saying it's time to get in. >> he has to look at history. this is what the great marty swied told us, don't fight the fed, don't fight the tape. when the fed switches, you have to switch with it. when the facts change, you have to change, too. look, i love a guy who has got

some rigor, but at the same time you kept people -- i'm doing a piece right now -- this has been maybe the greatest rally i've ever seen. >> you mean since october? >> people looking, how did you do. i bought biotech. how did you do? brilliant. i bought semis. fantastic job. there's a lot of high fives. communication of course is boosted by alphabet. utilities. >> it's a 90-something percentile rally. >> i say to him, have you looked at american power lately? i've crushed it with american power. pacific gas and electric. it's crushed you. honestly, these companies that are winning, carl, this is a dart, 98%. let me do it again. maybe i hit constellation energy. constellation energy or constellation brands, i don't care, as long as constellation. >> it's a great stat out of

bloomberg today, the s&p is almost 10% higher right now than the average forecaster at the beginning of the year said it would be at the end of the year. >> john arthur has been a delight, not afraid to take on the establishment. that's a great stat. that is a great stat. >> it does show how hard it is to call this market, right, and call rates. >> he said geopolitical is the highest in a decade. well, is that -- jamie is always saying geopolitical is bad. i wake up and asmf says, if taiwan's invaded, we're cool. if you didn't think there was a lot of geopolitical activity when president trump was president, i don't know. i understand from some of the people in the cabinet that he basically laid down the law to president xi at the beginning about where the bombs would go if he did anything. i feel like if he thinks this is

a very calm time i think versus the period, the president trump time. >> to your point, on that, oil, brent lowest since mid march. "the washington post" has some reporting suggesting maybe an offensive into rafah would be more limited, something the u.s. could look past. >> it does seem that the cabinet is split there. i always hesitate -- always say that i'm not a knesset guy. i don't know exactly what's going onthere. i do know that what i see is that this thing did not -- it's calmed down. at any minute it can flare up and make you look bad. i'm judging it, if we didn't know better, that oil is in free fall even since the missiles flew into iran. i was at a party with hedge fund pan jers who are typically wrong and they are again, oil is going to par. heaven help them if they would ever say 100.

it's important that they speak in a language nobody else speaks. it's risk on, partner, going to par. i'm like, will you give me the english to hedge fund dictionary. i know you try to make it so people don't understand. the oil trade has not worked. the deflationary trades have worked. i love the fellow at jpmorgan. what's his name? >> kolanovic? >> yeah. i'll remember that. >> we'll talk more about jpmorgan in particular, what jamie dimon said. we'll get to palo alto, tesla. there's boeing news. zoom, of course, look forward to toll and urban tonight. >> tonight is a big night. toll is going to be blowout. >> "squawk on the street" is back in a moment. ♪ ♪ engineered to minimize noise. and built for adventure.

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yesterday. the 68-year-old ceo indicated he is moving closer to retirement. here is what else he had to say about being asked about the back's succession plans. >> i have the energy that i've always had. that's important. i think when i can't put the jersey on and give it the full thing, i should leave basically. the board, it's up to them if i'll stay as chairman for a while. we'll see. we're on the way. we're moving people around. all the analysts in the room ask that question, is there good potential succession. you can evaluate the people you see as leaders yourself. i think most of you would say, yeah, there are actually really great potential ceos here and stuff like that. the timetable, it's not five years anymore. >> he says succession, jim, quote, is well on its way. >> people were concerned about the buyback, that he's not going to buy stock here. but as he was speaking the stock

turned into a free fall. that's why the dow was down. this is a man no one wants to retire which is actually quite a -- really hats off to the guy. he did cause a tremendous panic in the stock by acknowledging something that i think anyone other than warren buffett has said. he doesn't own the company. this is not jpmorgan or his son. i think people have to understand that he's loved and no one is ready for him to retire, but some day everybody retires. >> meantime on the macro, cautiously pessimistic, in his words -- >> well, he's got that rap. can't change now. if he suddenly changed now and said happy days are here again like judy garland. >> oh said u.s. is in pretty good shape. the soft landing appears to be playing itself out. >> remember, we're the best in education. we have the best military. jamie is a consistent fellow.

>> neighbors to the north and south, yes. >> we have natural resources that are abundant. i do think that the data from his bank shows you we're in pretty good shape. he runs scared which is what a good banker does. he runs scared. i did think he came to -- when i went to philadelphia, he said he thought the rates were going to go to 6% with the soft landing strategy. he's no longer saying that which is kind of cool. >> meantime, down the street at morgan stanley, quote, our proprietary m andn tracker supports or call for a 30% year-on-year. they went long large cap banks a long time ago. >> that would be sensational. i know there were people last week that were talking about what would happen if a bank started collapsing. a bank could collapse every week. i think that's a bad call.

the two banks we had trouble at, new york community, that's because the fed gave them the right to buy a bank they shouldn't. the other was a bank, republic first in philadelphia with a management that had been checkered. these were two that the fdic could have stopped ahead of time and they chose not to. obviously the fdic also under fire -- >> yes. looks like groom berg is going to lead. sheila baird made a comment yesterday about why he should. >> it did seem like senator warren was more reluctant to have him go. there were people -- look. it just sounded bad. i don't want to go into the nature of what was happening there, but what the heck. >> you haven't had a lot of cold water thrown on a long bank thesis right now. >> the banks are very strong. i said watch wells. we have a lot of people that think citi has made a major come back. baing is doing well despite the bond portfolio. pnc is doing decently.

the only bank people are saying good things about is comerica. it's tough to catch wells because sharp is so great. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell. speaking of bonds, after those waller comments, ten-year almost back to 440. back in a moment.

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take a look at nasdaq 100 laggards. palo alto will be at the top of the list. we'll check in with jim on that quarter and the reaction to it along with qualcomm. opening bell in about five inutz. catch us any time anywhere, follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. mi. catch us any time anywhere, follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. in. catch us any time anywhere, follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. ni. catch us any time anywhere, follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. ui. catch us any time anywhere, follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. ti. ti. catch us any time anywhere,

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time for cream's "mad dash." >> we often talk about surveys for apple. most of them are wrong. there's one place, a single source of wisdom i find about apple and that's morgan stanley. they just did their app store

revenue growth survey, accelerates in may, month to date, 11.7% which is tracking ahead of their forecasts. then you start talking about how china has had a very big acceleration month to late largely driven by china. morgan stanley has data prove even time and again to be right. you get the app store, if you get the service revenue streams, bigger than everything else apple has combined. you boost this up and find out the bull case of china being back -- this is why i didn't like that case. they found some suburb of whatever that had like three phones left -- this stuff just drives me crazy. morgan stanley does not drive me crazy. they are what i call rigorous. they don't give themselves enough credit. chaup chauch.

>> take a look at apple coming off the low 160s in april. let's get the opening bell here at the big door it is btig celebrating its 18th commission for charityday. bob pisani will be there later this day. >> everybody should do that. they would have so much fun if everybody did that. [ bell ringing ]. >> at the nasdaq, it's enact, a mortgage insurance provider. a lot of discussion yesterday looking at the microsoft hardware. qualcomm partnership some argued was a long-awaited response to what apple did with the m1 four years ago. >> i know qualcomm has been a horse, 120, goes to 200. i will say -- i wanted more followup on the ai. what is the implications of a dramatic refresh. we had one hul lert packard upgrade. the refresh they're talking

about, it will be common to have this pc next year at this time. that means everything you have is going to be literally changed. if that's the case, how can you not want to own hewlett packard, own the venues where they sell pcs. i don't get it. i think that was lost in the shuffle yesterday. everybody's pc is going to be obviated. >> jim's right. higher multiple, aipcs will help out. also del with a positive catalyst call. >> dell was down 4 yesterday. when michael dell was with jensen, obviously jensen -- he meets people and people get pictures. i get pictures. like i said, getting it right with jensen is the single most important thing you can do in the last two years. you have to be -- he's very easy to get right because he's

incredibly kind. by the way, most ceos like to be tough guys. they gravitate to being tough. he is kind. he will often tell you about you are kind or he is kind. it's really important. it's charming but not meant to be charming. it's just his demeanor. a kind demeanor versus, like, the tough guys that came out of ge. listen, i'm savage. don't be savage. be hind. what's wrong with being kind? >> your point about nvidia as we wait for tomorrow. this ft piece, amazon's cloud arm halting orders for the most advanced super chip to wait for a powerful new model as investors fret, the ft says about a dip in demand in the product cycle. >> i'm not worried. >> really? >> i'm not worried. this is history. >> implied volatility on nvidia is like 8-plus percent, right?

>> let's talk about that. nvidia. if this company is indeed set up for the quarter, imagine how many times you would have sold it. you would have sold it right after coming into this year because you would have said it can't duplicate. you would have sold it last year because it can't duplicate. i come back and say why do we -- we know that there's going to be a transition. i believe this amazon story -- i think if we went into it and said -- well, they're number one. they'll be the first at blackwell. now, they may be -- this is the revolutionary super chip. i think that they have it. it's not supposed to come out until the fall. but there's a relationship between amazon and nvidia that is sacred. you can go look. there are videos of these two -- there's a terrific one of amazon with slip ski with amazon --

with nvidia. they are true partners. you can sell it on this or say they must be very close to having a blackwell. i know the blackwell -- one of the things jensen has said over and over again, this is not 386 to 486 where you shouldn't order the 386 because the 486 -- you can make it work. they all work together. who is first in line? amazon. now, zuckerberg has tried very hard to be first in line. oracle wants to be first in line. i don't want to sell nvidia when the greatest companies of our time want to be first in line. no. that's like anthony edwards. you have the final four of the nba and they all are like who is trying to get the chips. amazon will get the chips. >> we haven't touched on palo alto which is obviously lower. there's still comments about how

the stock needs to reset or this was just one chapter toward recovering. >> this is how much the stock was up going in. there were a couple of guys who raised numbers to where they couldn't be on friday. that's an old tactic. a guy with a hold who raised numbers where you can't be beaten is a guy that wants a stock to go down. that's a time-honored tactic among analysts. salesforce said the same thing. you should be paying attention to the remaining performance obligations. for people at home, this is about the way you get cash in. rpo is a little less regular to get cash in. i like the quarter for reasons even nikesh didn't get into. the ascension hack, a very big hospital chain. they're getting the bid. when they get a platform instead of just discreet individual

unit, they've gotten times the earnings. everyone got caught up in the billings again. this was a much better quarter than last time. he bought back a lot of stocks. i'm not a barber. the quarter was good. >> he was on "mad" last night. talked about the environment surrounding hacks. let's take a quick listen. >> cautiously optimistic about what is going on from an enforcement and sort of organizing perspective in terms of how they are. unfortunately, i think the hacks are here to stay. i think we'll see more and more hacks going into election, more and more deep fakes, more and more ai to be used to scam people. it's wild unrest as far as the use of ai is concerned. >> what's he saying? he's saying if you want to know what industry has the greatest demand of our time, as much as i love nvidia, it's trying to stop

hacks. he's at the foer front along with george kishgs at crowd crowdstrike. i can tell you i would love to be in a business where every day i get called by a major customer who says please help. that's a dream come true. that's what he got at united health. that's the call he got. >> there is one note, jim, i won't name the firm, but a desk note asking, i'd love to know what it feels like to be a generalist hopping on a palo alto call because there are things we're told that are not visible in the numbers. is the phrasing around rpos and arr confusing? >> i'm a generalist, but i've had the advantage of being taught by marc benioff. it's very stressful. i've had calls where i said, come on, arrs, rpo, fdr. he said why don't you come out here and i'll walk you through it. he walked me through it more

than once. >> you can't blame an investor who is in software for occasionally getting confused. >> no, you can't. when marc decided to deemphasize billings, i said i just got my arms ten years later around billings and now you're telling me i have to look at remaining performance? i will say this, anikesh is right. the last call before this, it was like tell me, nikesh, do you understand palo alto is not a town, it's a company. they were very filibuster with him. there was one call last night, and nikesh took him down so brutally. i will tell you i think pam low alto has a fine quarter and they have the customers. i understand the gobble difficult gook. it is confusing.

let's break it out. is there a lot of demand or little demand. in the end demand controls business. the demand there is extraordinary. let's cut it out and recognize that demand says it's not bilths. give him that. george kurtz when crowdstrike reports, they'll give you the same demand picture. i think every day you wake up and it's like the defense department calling, a major hospital chain calling. i want to be in that business. i just don't want to describe how i book my orders. >> on glp-1s to day, nestle announced a line of packaged goods for the glp-1 user. >> the other day there was a story about these outfits were -- the fda is allowing different companies to come in. good luck. again, you keep hoping it falls off the truck. there's not enough lilly.

nestle's might be an interesting stock know that cocoa peteaked. eli lilly, i'm a little disappointed they haven't come out with the dementia stuff that the fda wanted. this is another one where there's so much demand. i've been with people who say people stopped taking it after a year. i think the trials going on make it so if you get fatty liver, you can't stop taking it. diabetes, you can't stop taking it. if there's any comorbidities, you can't stop taking. the question is the big thing, will the insurers pay for it? we're not sure about that. >> interesting piece out of bloomberg, commercial property insurance in florida because of climate change rising at five times the national rate. >> i don't know how people -- look, those people who are just

doing it because of taxes, give me a break. we looked at a place -- lisa loves real estate. she has the equivalent of a monopoly game -- anti monopoly. where she says let's go look at beach front property. a lot of the guys have gotten wise. >> they don't cover. >> they don't write. i remember the late mr. fisherman who ran travelers who said, don't ever buy florida real estate because we're not going to write and one day nobody is going to write. on june road they don't write in long island. that's going to be cpi, miserable. >> on the other hand, autozone, jim, i wonder what you made of a couple of quarters. zoom we haven't gotten to. >> autozone, this is when you

buy it, right here. they buy back stock like no other company. you buy it right here. they'll be buying back stock in three days and you'll be grateful i mentioned it. zoom, carly is so nice, eric is so nice. they have no growth. well, 1% growth. until they get actual growth there, you can't own the stock. i love the zoom content. i feel so bad. he's a true genius and zoom is still the gold standard for a lot of people. teams pops up when you least want it -- try to disable teams, it can't be disabled. the fact is skoom hasn't been able to parlay what it has into a series of apps that we would like and not parlayed into growth. therefore, no growth, no one wants to buy it. by the way, docusign is in a similar situation. again, you get these companies and you root for them, but they

don't have growth. when they don't have growth -- everybody wants rule of 40, they want big rpo, big billings. i give you a company that grows at 1%. >> meantime, some of the other pandemic names, jim. peloton doing refinancing to alleviate the cash crunch. that's down 14. >> yeah, good luck there. another shrimp scampi. >> tesla is behaving pretty well here, jim, even amid analyst reports just highlighting how dependent the company is on musk not going away. >> look, it's adam jonas again, and thank heavens for adam jonas. he writes as much as stephen king. remember he's the charles dickens of our team. he had a cramer harder. i'm still convinced, i have such an ego, that he watches our show. the piece that jonas did on tesla was brilliant. what he's basically saying is, if you want all that ai and

don't want a car company, you've got to vote yes. >> on the pay package. >> everyone in the world has to vote yes. he's going to take his bat and ball and go home. if i want a car company, i'll byford motor. >> a huge piece about the muskonomy. it the spacex logo and the tesla logo. boring still? >> i want people at home to understand that you'll read -- i'll read all these reports. they're like, oh, my god, let me break that, let me break that. then jonas. it's wow. jonas is just joy. i called him a lot of times. he's not allowed to talk to me because of the compliance rules.

i just say, you're great. i hope he doesn't ever retire. >> in retail, jim, we mentioned lowe's and macy's. a call on gps today. a city goes positive catalyst. >> gps has come all the way back down to where it almost yields three. this richard dixon who has a long history oh owes it was line nine west. he's been ar rourpd forever. he's turning the company around starting with old navy. i hope he gets banana republic right. i will say this guy is for real, and i want to do that trade. anf and gap are for real. there's a turn going on at gap. i think dixon is a leader who has inspired people again. i like him. >> i'm looking at some of these charts in specialty, jim. >> anf can't miss. i don't know how it's possible. it's been a very quiet, fantastic run which the analysts are just recognizing it's real. look at that.

that's been one of the great stocks of our time. again, custing back to this idea, that store is packed annette totally. you look at the financials and you can -- it's a great thing people at home can do. you go to your a andf. it's packed. there's a preponderance that are. you realize what they've done. they've been fantastic. i really like them. >> to finish out the block on jpm, trying to get back some of the losses from yesterday. second-best dow name at the moment. >> they do have a bench. i've been marvelling that when you have a company that doesn't have a lot of titan 50-year-olds that you've heard of, you say to yourself, well, is jamie really grooming? then you say 12 times earnings for the best bank in the world? i'll pay 12 times earnings. we don't know where his buyback really does live, but we do know that you're not paying a lot for

the premier bank versus, say, the premier restaurant chain, the premier ap parm company. it's really kind of mystifying what the premier bank doesn't have a higher price earnings. >> huge succession story which we'll continue to monitor in the coming kaur ters and maybe years. meantime, as we go to break, waller headlines were initially taken as a bit hawkish. yields have settled back this morning. >> don't worry about the yields. i'm going to dig deeper. i'm not dismissing amazon. i am saying my contacts with amazon, they are the most favored. they are. >> take a look at the bonds, the screen as we've got the dow up almost 30 and s&p roughly flat, still holding 5,300. stay with us.

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last week comcast announced news about the new bundle stream saver, the partnership with peaco*ck, netflix, and apple tv. jim, now getting a little more information on pricing. current and new xin customers can ad every day price of $15 a month with no annual contracts as they argue it results in a savings of about 30%, almost 100 a year. >> i expressed frustration because i thought no one ever deals with -- apple is hard. they're not going to come to the table. this is a -- i thought something that would move the stock. i did. and, obviously, i own a lot of stock and it's important to me. i was surprised that that didn't resonate, and i keep coming back to the cord never. younger people i speak to quite

often, it's anecdotal, i can't find a lot of people who watch us. and it's a great -- >> because they're watching you on other platforms or different methods of distribution. >> a lot of people who say, tell me about jeff marks. he seems like a great guy. jeff is with me in my 10:20, and the constant refrain i get from the young people i get, thank you for giving me a program that tells me everything i need, and it's like, i've been in business forever it's crushing. i take it personally. they don't want the bundle. they don't want the bundle and a lot because they don't make any money. my baker daughter is not cleaning it up and she's doing as best as she possibly can. >> keep an eye on it. it's tumultuous days around media. stop trading with jim in a meinte as the market hold sothg cards close to the vest ahead of nvidia tomorrow. back there a moment. car, this isn't the way home.

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it's for first solar. he doesn't mean it for first solar because he doesn't want to say we favor this, other than gina raimondo, no one in business talks to them. first solar do commercial, not just the individual who has to get credit and try to sell the electricity to the grid. this is the company to own. even though it has moved, it only sells 14 times earnings and you can put on more. it's a well-run company as opposed to maybe the other solar companies which would promote to death if they were allowed to. these are the winners. it's a quiet, very, very good manufacturing company. >> street still processing some of the news of recent tariffs. tonight, jim? >> i have lowe's. i've got one of the hazards being here while the call goes on, it's going from up to down, and we have to check that why that is. marvin has done a remarkable job at lowe's. he got a bad hand when he got there in that they didn't have technology.

let's see what happens. i know everyone keeps hoping, toll brothers, will say we're seeing an unlock, but when you have a 7% jumbo to get and you're paying 2.5 or 3, it's just -- it doesn't happen. >> yeah. we'll see if there's any movement in the 30-year this week. jim, we'll see you tonight. >> okay. >> busy week continues. adon" 00.m. eastern time. the dow up 25. don't go anywhere.

good tuesday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live at post nine as always from the new york stock exchange. david is on assignment. take a look at stocks. only the dow is higher of the major averages and it's just up by about 35% thanks to ibm adding 30 points, jpmorgan, microsoft, all helping the dow stay positive. the s&p 500 is unchanged.

there's strength in some of the defensive groups like utilities, staples, health care all up today, financials are doing well, but weakness in technology, consumer discretionary and industrials the nasdaq down 0.2%. still up nicely for the week after yesterday's rally. take a look at treasuries right now. the story has been stronger prices and lower yields and we see that today, 4.4% on the 10-year yield on the 2-year 4.8%. here are movers we're watching. lowe's and macy's heading in opposite directions this morning. both companies beating expectations for the quarter. lowe's reaffirming the full-year forecast. but it is down 2% and macy's slightly higher. lam research gaining. the chip company announcing a 10 for 1 stock split, planning to repurchase up to $10 billion worth of shares. watch crypto, bitcoin hitting its highest level since early april. ether touching mid-march highs as well.

the rally continues for crypto. as far as the macro setup today, it's really all about the fed speak and there's a dizzying amount of it and the takeaway from it is that it's really not doing anything to change the market's mind about this narrative that there will be easing this year. maybe one, maybe two cuts, and that the fed is in a wait and see mode to get more progress on inflation. fed governor waller in the last hour always a voter, always a thought leader on the fed, here's the money quote i thought from him, in the absence of significant weakening in the labor market i need to see several more months of good inflation data before i would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy. which makes june sort of seem far away, right, because several more months of data, he gave the -- a grade for the april cpi report i think like a c or c-minus, wants to see more progress, but, obviously, still happy to see it on trend. there's going to be an interview on cnbc with him later as well. we'll see what he has to say.

as far as other fed speak to highlight, cleveland fed president mester on the tape talking to bloomberg saying it's too soon to tell what path inflation is on and we need to collect more information on that. that jives. mary daly, san francisco fed president, telling a publication i'm not confident inflation is yet coming down sustainably to 2% but i don't see any evidence right now that we need to adjust upwards either. they're all in a lot of words and a lot of headlines saying the same thing, which is basically we need to see more evidence and inflation is going back down to target. they've got to be pleased they've started to see that. there's bostic too, saying we talk to business leaders and what they're telling us things are slowing down. my outlook inflation will continue to fall for this year and into 2025. not ready yet, but they're getting there. >> yeah. i mean it kind of rhymes with what paul mccauley told us last week in the wake of cpi, need three prints to get a trend going or confidence back on the

committee. interesting to hear waller today be initially the 2-year did spike up on some of his comments and later took it as dovish. >> because many more months, maybe, ofprogress, but, you know, they're not precommitting one way or the other. he did say it's unlikely the next move would be a hike echoing powell there. that does seem to be sort of the consensus at least. we'll get more from the minutes tomorrow. jamie dimon of jpmorgan echoing what he has said in recent months, continues to be i think concerned about geopolitics but sticky inflation. listen to what he said at their investor day. >> i'm cautiously pessimistic. we have the most complicated geopolitical situation that most of us have seen since world war ii if you study history. we don't know the full effect of q.t. i find it mysterious somehow it had this beneficial effect, but it's not going to have a enough effect when it goes away. i personally think inflation may be stickier than people think

and rates may surprise people. >> again, echoing some of the concerns he's had before on geopolitics, on g.t. and the reversal of that unsticky inflation. so far the market hasn't necessarily bought into that narrative, but to have someone like him, while jpmorgan is still doing so well, especially in the consumer bank, sound that alarm, obviously, is important to note. >> yeah. what's interesting, on a more micro level to see wendy's, mcdonald's and target, the big three, high-profile consumer-facing names that are cutting prices, at least for a little bit in the month of may. >> right. >> >> we'll see how much that folds into inflation data. with crude at a two-month low. >> was that inflationary surge in the first part of the year temporary and will we continue to hear more target reports tomorrow about lower prices? certainly on the goods front we know that's happening. the question is, is it happening more in the food aisle, which is where americans are feeling the

pain? listen to what the macy's ceo characterized the consumer as this morning on the call. >> our customers across all three names continue to benefit from strong wage and job growth. however, inflationary pressures persist and they're feeling that pinch. the outlook provided on our fourth quarter earnings call as well as today's update assumes our customers will continue to carefully scrutinize their discretionary purchases. >> good on the jobs front but tough on the inflation front as these price increases do -- they're cumulative and sticking around and even if the rate is coming down, they're clearly impacting the consumer and something we've heard from almost every consumer company retail, staple, across the board, during this earnings season. >> although as we pointed out with jim and thanks to ed yardeni, household income all-time high, ex the covid

spike. >> the consumer is not falling apart. there's a lot of tailwinds as well. the flationry effect is being effect. >> for more on the markets goldman sachs chief strategist david kostin here at post nine to talk about his year-end target which remains 5200, david, even as some of your colleagues are at least raising their 12 month and raising their earnings for the year. do you feel any pressure to do the same? >> nope. right now the 5,200 target, slightly below where we are today, 5,300, and i think the argument is as follows -- the market and investors are already incorporating into their forecasts the idea the economy is slowing and rates are likely to get cut. whether they get cut one or two times is largely in the dialog and the narrative and discussions we have with clients. that's number one. the valuation of the market is high. earnings and our forecasts around plus 8%, carl they came in at plus 6% for the first

quarter and we finished that right now. some of the companies talking about things slowing on their retail, you just referenced, other cases the financial companies more confident in terms of what's happening in terms of the consumer demand. a mixed picture we're getting on the commentary from management on their conference calls. basically, the idea of modest earnings growth is consistent with what we're seeing. >> the house view at goldman is for a july cut. >> correct. >> a cut on the quarterly basis from there on out. wouldn't you suspect the market could overshoot your year-end target in the summer if that happens? >> our forecast incorporates the interest rate outlook of jan hatzius my colleague. we're assuming a cut in july and later in the year and next year as you indicated. the likelihood of a recessionary or not recessionary, cause me, election pullback later in the summer, early part of fall, is consistent with history, so that would be one risk variable to

think about. if you think about what market has done thus far in the first quarter results, companies that met or beat guidance actually went down. it was only the companies that raised guidance. near term, lot of focus tomorrow is the nvidia number coming out at the end after the close on wednesday afternoon, so to the extent there's a beat and raise there, that would be one indication consistent with the pattern we've seen thus far. lots of questions fund managers are asking about with respect to the return that is going to be achieved by a lot of companies who are investing considerable cash and research and development and dollars and capex on the ai front, that's big topic of focus and questions we get from our portfolio manager clients. >> should you be rewarding the stocks investing most in ai or that is a risk? >> what we think is four phases. phase one is nvidia. it's clearly the leader. the stock up 90% this year. it's been a hero in terms of demand for their products.

that's phase one. phase two, where a lot of focus is. they've done well this year. it's the infrastructure companies. there's some cloud companies. lots of utilities, utilities some of the best performing stocks in the last month -- >> you think that's secular? >> that is the next phase of the ai trade if you want to think about it in that terminology. companies phase three, those would -- whose revenues would be enhanced potentially as a result of ai widespread adoption and productivity growth benefits that's longer term. there's a lot of debate about what is the investment hor over their return that's going to be achieved. in our discussions the clients reference infrastructure related stocks, the cloud companies, utility companies, likely to benefit from the infrastructure bill. >> so got it. what about the big hyper scalers spending the most money, google spending $12 billion a quarter?

>> they are spending to stay ahead of themselves. risk there not to that company uniquely but lot of companies are under anti -- stress scrutiny. the litigation will come down. the forecast is those are the areas, including the hyper scalers, that will be benefitting from all this ai. >> is capex -- >> they're making the money and receiving that on part of their customers. >> is capex growing beyond tech and spending on ai? >> it is. capex in aggregate will grow in the vicinity around 6% this year, about $930 billion of spending by s&p 500 companies which is a lot. there will be the second largest use of cash for the year. >> and the tug of war between capex and buybacks, who would you say is winning at the moment? >> the buybacks. companies returning cash to shareholders have been outperforming. consistent, carl, with the idea in a slowing economic environment, investors tend to

reward companies that return cash to shareholders, through dividends and buybacks and that's a pattern and what we're seeing now. they've out performed significantly. >> great guidance on the window reopening. great to have you in. david costen from goldman sachs. >> the strategist not changing his forecast. as we head to break here's our road map for the rest of the hour. the latest battle in the streaming wars, what it means for consumers, investors and netflix trading at new highs today. >> the buzz building ahead of nvidia tomorrow night. shares up about 10% for the month. fresh data on the staggering amount of options that are going into the results. >> anden an interview you do not want to miss when two-time super bowl champ eli manning joins us. big show sllti ahead. "squawk on the street" will be right back. don't go anywhere. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk,

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month. watson saying this is designed to drive value for broadband customers, reduce churn and noted it opens the possibility for other bundles down the line. all this comes ahead of the bundle of disney plus, hulu and max, set to launch this summer. no details on exact timing or pricing of that bundle. then the sports streaming joint venture between fox, warner brothers discovery tnt and espn set to launch by this fall. we learned on friday its name venue sports and will combine linear and digital feeds from those broadcasts. sources tell us it will be in the 40 to $50 range. all of these bundles aim to reduce churn, increase engagement, which is valuable for ad revenue and also to use their combined left left to reduce marketing costs. the question is paramount plus with its parent company facing questions, which apps it will decide to bundle with to address

its lack of scale. that's the question we're watching right now. back to you. >> on the pricing, any surprises there, and how does it compare to some of the others? >> well, i think what's really interesting here, sara, we don't know what price is of these other bundles will be yet. we have this big bundle coming from warner brothers discovery and disney that i assume it will be at a discount than buying the apps a la carte and no idea what the cost will be for the sports streaming joint venture. i think the idea here, this is a pretty meaningful discount, 30% discount, i think it's notable we have the netflix with ads, netflix certainly would be incentivized to offer its product at a discount to drive volume to get that ad revenue up for themselves, but what they're doing here is trying to drive audiences to their broadband plan. this is about comcast really trying to innocenty vise people to be locked into their plan. why for apple tv plus and

netflix this would be a good opportunity to team up with peaco*ck to grow their viewership. >> you can't compare it to each other on price but you can compare it to subscribing to the individual services themselves. >> yes. >> that's a discount on that. >> good discount for them themselves and see how these other bundles end up pricing. they're going to have to offer a discount to the a la carte pricing for sure. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin. for more on what this mean for streaming rivals and the landscape, moffettnathanson's founding partner michael nathanson. do you expect big uptake? >> good morning. i think it's a pretty good deal for consumers. you get one of three packages for free is how i look at it. one of the three, you get two, one for free. it's a good promo for people. you know, the issue is netflix is widely distributed on broadband i'm not sure how big the opportunity is for netflix to take share here. but for the other two, clearly

it's a win-win because basically get in a package for people to consider makes sense. >> right. so i guess how should investors look at it as far as the potential market and the potential revenue gains from these bundling services? >> okay. so craig covers comcast and what we've been saying forever is that it's a broadband company. anything they can do to highlight the quality of their broadband offering and the value they provide is good for comcast. we don't think peaco*ck, unfortunately, moves the needle for comcast, but broadband does. it's smart for dave watson to get people to pay attention to this value and the opportunity people take broadband for comcast. for apple, such a small tiny piece of their business, again it's a rounding error so for comcast it's a win for them. for netflix they are going to be the base package for everyone and just basically be promoted within comcast for those that don't have netflix, that's a win as well. that's how we see it.

two of the three, you know, win without a doubt. >> you have a neutral on netflix. you cover that one. 505 because you don't see a lot more growth potential here? >> we worry about is the idea of a pull forward, right. there's been, you know, the whole, you know, clamping down on password sharers has pulled forward a lot of demand. i think what we're worrying about is that once you get through the anniversary of password sharing is there a slowing of subscriber growth in some of the wealthier markets? no doubt they're growing in developing markets, asia-pacific and latin america. our concern is we think in6 to 9 months there's not going to be a cliff, bought slowing and i think the market is not pricing that in, right. we would love to be buyers of netflix. we had in our conference last week they're doing everything correctly but feels the stock is not discounting slowing of revenue or subscriber growth into next year. >> on the macro front, i mean, just gaming out a sort of goldilocks scenario on which

rates come down, housing supply improves, you get better mobility, household creation, is there any substitute for that, whether it's that regards comcast or netflix or any of the streaming services? >> carl, it's basically you start at the op. you have broadband net ads that will be positive for the industry. as people think of broadband they need more streaming products. netflix wins in that. everyone else will have a chance to be pulled along. we've had a long run here with very little new broadband creation, very -- we're seeing in our data a slowing of subscriber growth in streaming, limitation number of considerations for streaming products for home. anything you do that frees up consumer discretionary spending and new household is good for the streaming here. that's not what we've seen in a while. >> thank you for weighing in on the stories and learn new details of this bundling. >> thanks for having me. as we go to break keep an

eye on shares of palo alto. still under pressure off the opening lows despite solid results from last night. billings guidance did come up short. still ahead super bowl mvp and nfl legend eli manning live from btig charity for commission day he will join us after the break. don't go anywhere. my mother encouraged us to have a strong work ethic and it was one of the key values of asian culture. my mother was actually encouraged not to speak cantonese to us in nursery school because it would hurt our english language development. it's amazing to see how far the world has come embracing asian world has come embracing asian culture, asian in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see -how? the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo

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is ramping up production to supply expanding nuclear markets and diversifying into rare earth elements, key ingredients in many clean energy and defense technologies. energy fuels. . btig holds its commission for charity day where the net commissions are donated to nonprofits. to bob pisani live on the scene with a special guest. good morning, bob. >> good morning, carl. dozens of sports celebrities and actors and individuals here for their favorite charity day. eli manning joining us here moving on from two super bowl

victories now in the business world. here for a charity. >> tackle kids cancer which raises funds for pediatric cancer research through hackensack and in-house programs to help the kids and families that are there, so i've been doing it for eight or nine years now, raised over $25 million and just helping these kids get back to being kids again. >> you're a partner in brand velocity group, they do private investment in the world and there are proposals you're involved in these in front of the national football league to allow private equity firms to buy in president nfl don't allow it right now. can you tell us the state of those negotiations and what are you and brand velocity interested in buying? >> a lot going on with the nfl right now. it's been in the news and we're just, you know, we're thinking about it. we want to learn more information. everything is not out there. but it's just interesting now for the first time that the nfl is going to take institutional money from groups and private

equity to buy minority stakes on nfl teams, done it in basketball, baseball, soccer and hockey and not in the nfl, so, you know, just trying to learn as much information as possible about that process and if there's a way to get involved. >> why is the nfl a holdout? the nba allows private equity. what do we want to keep people out for a reason, what's the reason here? >> the nfl never had to. they had people that were willing to pay big prices for the sport. as the valuations have gone up and up you're running out of individuals that can afford to pay 6, 7, $8 billion for a franchise and the ones that, you know, some families own this for a long time and they have this asset that's grown into so much they want money maybe off the table to do other projects and take care of family and hit that time where, you know, they need this option to help out. >> money is seeming to overshadow everything these days in the sports business. how do you feel about college

licensing their name, image, and likeness? >> i don't have a problem with it. i think these kids should be rewarded. they're going into these major money making programs in football and college football and they should be rewarded for this. i think the problem of why they're picking these schools not because they love the program or the coach or the college, they never played a down in football, it's the money. >> i have to let you go but ask you about the manning cast, amazing to watch, in the old days commentary with sports and football going on and now you run a consecutive commentary in addition to regular football manning cast. what is that like? it's a different thing in my business and alternative programmingessentially to live sports. >> basically someone watching peyton and i watch football, and we've done it -- give our analysis of what's going on. we have great guests come on from snoop dog or condoleezza rice to former president barack

obama, but only one thing that they have to love football and love the game of football and so we have a lot of fun and this year got bill belichick going to join us for a little bit of the commentary, and it keeps peyton and i involved in the game of football and brings a new perspective and new way of watching the game. >> eli manning, not resting on your laurels, two super bowl victories and marching on here. keep us up to date on the nfl negotiations. >> thanks, bob. >> thank you. >> sara, back to you. >> it's highly entertaining. even i watch the manning cast. bob pisani and eli manning. still ahead where the street stands on nvidia ahead of the big print and what options market is saying about a post-earnings move. the read through on retail as lowe's and macy's beat estimates but are there cracks in the consumer? we'll discuss when "squawk on the street" comes right back. even with unliked and inconvenient injections,

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i'm seema moody with your cnbc news update. donald trump's defense team rested in his criminal hush money trial without the former president taking the stand. it came less than an hour after the lone defense witness robert costello returned to the stand this morning. the defense is hoping costello's testimony will undermine some of key witness michael cohen's recollection of the payment trump allegedly facilitated to cover up an affair with adult actress stormy daniels. thousands gather today in iran to begin funeral ceremonies for the late iranian president who died in a helicopter crash on sths sunday. officials say the helicopter went down in poor weather near theazerbaijan border claiming the lives of ebrahim raisi and other officials. raisi will be buried thursday. singapore airlines said one died and at least 30 others injured in severe turbulence on a flight from london today. the plane was forced to make an emergency landing in bangkok shortly after experiencing a sharp drop in cruising altitude,

211 passengers were on board. scary stuff. back to you. >> thank you very much. seema moody. as you know we're a little over a day away from nvidia earnings tomorrow night. let's get to dominic chu to talk about where the street stands and what volatility might look like after. >> carl, ara, in many ways the market narrative overall is very much focused on nvidia for good reason because nvidia is by far the biggest contributeser to market weighted index like 100 and the s&p 500 as well. if you look at the nvidia versus the qqq, almost nine times the gain on a year-to-date basis and over the s&p 500, as well. that gap is massive. now if you take a look at what the expectations are around some of these earnings reports, check out at least the numbers we're dealing with. first of all, earnings per share coming in at $5.59 on an adjusted basis, revenue around $24.65 billion. that's the current state of play

according to consensus from lseg. with regard to where the street stands on it, this is a stock that has no sell ratings. 88% say it's a buy rating. analysts who cover that stock. only 12% have it as a hold. current average target price of $1039, you're implying a roughly 10% upside move from where things closed just yesterday going into it. by the way, carl mentioned some of the volatility around this. take a look at this. from a momentum standpoint, this stock is still solidly above its 50-day and certainly above its 200-day average price and to give you context, right now the options market is pricing in what could be a plus or minus 8% move in that stock on the heels of earnings and to provide even more context, sara, over the last eight quarters, the move has been plus or minus 13%. so the options market currently implying what might be a less volatile report this time around.

we'll keep an eye on that. >> so much enthusiasm the analyst notes out today, wedbush, another beat and raise, high confidence around nvidia results. dom, thank you. appreciate it. dominic chu. busy week when it comes to the health of the consumer and earnings. lowe's, macy's, auto zone among the names crossing the tape. target out tomorrow morning. joining us at post nine ceo of jay kniffen endprizes. what have we learned about the health of the consumer now that we have more retailers under our belt? >> we've learned that it's still good, but it may not be as strong as it was. we've learned they all think they have a job so they feel pretty good about spend putting loaded up their credit cards so they're getting to that point where that could be a problem. they've drawn down their savings but haven't got tonight bottom of the barrel yet. so far the consumer is fine like the old job the guy falling by the seventh floor hasn't hit the

ground yet. if we don't start seeing some changes in interest rates in my opinion, we will start to see cracks in the consumer and we'll start to see cracks in commercial real estate. but we haven't seen those real cracks yet. we've seen a little bit of slowing by the consumer and a little bit of trade down. >> where is the consumer feeling it? it's not in mortgages. nobody is taking out a mortgage. credit card loans, auto loans? is that where the pain is on high rates. >> macy's had higher bad debt this time. they talked about it. and yes, auto loans we're seeing that. we're seeing the lower end consumer slow down because that money that was flowing through from the government has slowed down, so we've seen also the trade down of people saying inflation and these things are 24% higher than in 2019, i'm going to buy the private label or i'm going to trade down to a cheaper product. when you start seeing that, y you -- it's remarkable how strong they have stayed in the

face of the interest rates and the loading up the credit card. they look as good as they did in 2019. and they shouldn't. because we've done everything we can to slow them down and they've refused to participate. i still think it's because they're in the torpedo full speed ahead mode saying i am going to do stuff because you locked me down for two years and until i run out of money or don't have a job i'm going to buy. macy's showed us that today. their numbers weren't great, but they were certainly better than people thought and even lowe's, better numbers than people thought. some pressure on expense sides of those businesses. >> yes. we mentioned a few moments ago, some of the rollbacks at target this week, some similar moves out of the restaurants like mcdonald's and wendy's. how is that going to change the price volume equation, do you think, in the quarters to come? >> we've seen basically people take a hit on gross margin to get better pricing and the volumes aren't really going up.

they're struggling a little bit with the volumes. when you're looking at a time period where prices change by literally between 20 and 30%, over not that long a time period, you shouldn't be surprised when you see some resistance from the consumer and we're seeing that. but relatively speaking, goods are not inflating much at all right now, if at all, as a matter of fact some goods are deflating. >> sure. >> we're starting to see pressure on gross margin because of that, but we're also seeing these retailers pull down expense structure too. so they're taking the hit on the gross margin line and making it up on the expense side but not making it up on the excess sales side. >> are any of these -- what is the future of these department stores, macy's, nordstrom? are they going to get taken private or grow again? >> i believe if interest rates were falling instead of hanging where they are or people don't know what they're going to do, you would already see quite likely a bid that could take macy's private.

nordstrom clearly wants to go private. if interest rates were favoring that and falling you would see that move made as well because the family is, obviously, interested in taking them private, and somebody like, you know, archouse brigade could be taking macy's private or someone else. macy's is doing the things they have to do, right? they're shrinking the base, and they're reducing the stores. they reported the top -- >> shrinking for years. >> yes. >> how many years has macy's been closing stores? >> how long has the department store industry been shrinking? we started in 18 7 and 19992. it's been shrinking since then and macy's has been the biggest player. they're going to shrink a little bit. but they've done a pretty nice job here recently of making some changes that are, obviously, helping the business. they're going down to what's probably the right number of stores. there's only 350 great malls left in america and they're moving toward 350 stores.

so can they be a viable business at some level going forward? sure they can. they can also be bought out with their own assets an maybe not be a viable operating business, but still be viably financially for the guy that does the transaction. >> that real estate play that keeps coming up. thank you. never enough time. jan kniffen. >> thank you. the treasury secretary janet yellen in europe this week as you know with tough words about china. we'll bring u osyothe headlines after a short break.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." treasury secretary janet yellen speaking in germany urging the eu to join the u.s. in cracking down on chinese exports. our own wilfred frost sat down with the treasury secretary. good to see you. >> sara, great to hear from you. as you said, just sat down with secretary yellen a few moments ago. wide-ranging conversation touching on sanctions on russia,

on the trade relationship with china as you mentioned, but also, the u.s. debt position. and i asked her about the comments that chair powell had made ten days ago that the u.s. is on an unsustainable fiscal path and asked her whether it was okay for him to be commenting on her policy area. >> i think all policymakers, whether at the fed or in the government, really have to be committed to our country being son a fiscally sustainable course. >> is he right? >> i am, president biden is. he's right in the sense that we do need to address deficits. the debt to gdp ratio in the united states has gone up, but even with recent increases in interest rates, interest rates are considerably lower than they were in past decades and the interest burden of the debt at

this point remains manageable. but we need further deficit reduction to stay on a fiscally sustainable course. the president's 2025 budget proposing $3 trillion of deficit reduction over the next decade, and he's committed to keeping us on a fiscally sustainable course, which i agree with. >> reporter: and sara and carl, i specifically asked whether it was okay for him to be commenting on fiscal policy and on that she did say, it's fine. we also discussed why the economy wasn't polling better ahead of the election and she said when americans are asked about the economy as a whole they're less positive, was her line, but said the majority do feel good about their own financial position. we mentioned china there and, of course, in light of new tariffs being escalated last week by the u.s. on china, i asked if she feared retaliation from china.

she said, quote, it's possible they'll have to take some steps in response. >> i was curious about that, because, you know, that was the latest announcement from the treasury, and while she had telegraphed i think that pretty well when she went to beijing and we talked about all options being on the table and told them to change their model, i wonder what china will do in response and how this is being -- this is being looked at not just from an economic perspective but geopolitical one as well and where that leaves europe? >> yeah. absolutely. and i specifically quoted some of the lines she said in beijing in april to you, notably the fact that u.s.-china relations had been in the best place she said in april, for 12 months, and whether that's taken a step backwards? she didn't take the bait on that front and in that sense i would say it was an interesting straddle on wanting to appear tough on china n light of as you

said quadrupling tariffs on electric vehicles, but at the same time wanting to maintain some of the more constructive terms she did with you in april. today she said communication remains in a better place, quote, that we have a broad and deep trade relationship that we want to maintain, so in that sense, it was a nuanced approach as to how tough the u.s. wants to be on china. indeed, in terms of china to make this speech today and europe to follow suit if we don't respond strategically in a united way to china's industrial policy then the viability of businesses both of our countries, u.s. and germany, could be at risk. i pressed her and gave her the chance toex police it -- to explicitly say to european leaders you're not doing enough. she wouldn't take that bait. it was a nuanced response on china, straddling the news that came last week of escalating tariffs and the more constructive tone she struck in

beijing in april. >> down the list of global concerns to what degree was the ball moved forward when it comes to the seizure of russian assets and the use of those funds? >> yeah. so she travels to italy tonight. the g-7 finance ministers gathering for the next couple of days ahead of a leaders summit a month later in june, and that was very interesting, as a reminder there's some 200 plus billion euros of frozen russian assets. it's been clear for the last few months the eu wasn't going to seize them outright and gift them to ukraine, but they have approved giving ukraine the annual interest 2 or $3 billion euros per year. what was interesting in the conversation with janet yellen today, she explicitly backed the idea of underwriting a loan that would bring forward some of the interests and the profits from the frozen russian assets. i said, 40, $50 billion euro

loan immediately to ukraine and she said yes, that's a possibility. she's expected, therefore, to push that as an idea to g-7 finance ministers in the coming days in italy, carl? >> wilf, fascinating stuff. obviously, a lot to cover with her. you did job. talk soon. wilfred frost from frankfurt. gold prices hit record highs after record high. can the rally continue? we'll talk about it with the chairman and ceo of freeport-mcmoran. what another trump presidency might mean for you. we'll get details after a short break.

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their

“price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. some are calling a sea change. let's get to eamon javers who had quite the segment today on "squawk". >> that's right, carl. the first trump presidency shattered ideology on the republican party's approach to free markets and tariffs. a second trump presidency, if it comes, could shatter it on everything else in economic policy. that's because the 2024 presidential election is taking place in a dramatically different economic and political

context. conservative economic thinkers have spent years now constructing an intellectual and policy framework around trump's economist message. what they've come up with is a worker first, anti-corporate elite package of ideas that's increasingly popular in economic circles. a think tank have been churning out white papers and policy proposals designed to reset republican thinking on the economy. it's not clear how much clout they would have in a second donald trump administration, but robert lighthizer, one of the most influential voices on the trump camp sits on the board of directors of american compass. we spoke to aaron cass and he pushed back on traditional republican notions about the american economy. >> what we need is actually a stronger, more productive economy that sees a lot more domestic investment, that sees

reshoring of domestic industry, that sees a real focus on boosting the productivity of american workers that their wages can rise so that they can support their families. so, that's the sort of agenda that we're focused on. again, that doesn't just mean, you know, tax cuts, deregulation, free trade with china. that means actually returning, among other things, to the tradition of american economics which is how do you build a strong economy at home. >> you hear there, their movement rejects the ideas that tax cuts are always the best policies and embraces unions, high tariffs, strict immigration limits and a taxation on wall street which is designed to stop what the new economic populist. republican critics of the new thinking say it's going to result in higher taxes, higher inflation, less efficiency in the market. one critic dismissed it to me as nothing more than big government conservatism. if trump wins in 2024, expect a trump economic policy in 2025 is

going to look a little more like this new populist model than the low tax, low regulation approach of the past several generations of republican politics, carl. back over to you. >> that's really interesting. also raises the question that people are trying to figure out which is which administration would be more pro business. >> right. >> it doesn't necessarily typically fall in the way that it has previously. also, where, for instance, the chamber of commerce, the big influential business lobby ends up on the political side. >> look, i think the chamber of commerce is out in the cold in this world of economic populism. there is no sort of reagan era, low regulation, low tax conservative out there on the horizon. you know, donald trump doesn't necessarily see the world that way. he sees it in terms of incentives, power, what works for him and his voters. this is a movement that's very much focused now on workers, not necessarily on lowering prices and consumers. it's a different ideological framework. >> eamon, fascinating and all

kinds of implications for global growth, gdp, taxes, unions and so forth. way to raise the conversation this morning on "squawk." that's our eamon javers. dow settling in with modest gains. up 3potsn isueay6 in oth tsd. "money movers" begins after this.

good tuesday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. today stocks sitting near all-time highs but citi's chief economist says to still expect a bit of a hard landing. he'll join us in a moment to make his case. plus, it's not just stocks enjoying the bull run. gold and copper surging to new records. ceo of freeport-mcmoran breaks down the commodity sector. live at microsoft developers conference and the a.i. road map. as we said earlier, muted action ahead of nvidia. dow's up 34. goldman and jpm are two of the top three dow components. s&p definitely holding 5300. senior markets commentator mike santoli with six members of th

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