Should you keep buying in a bear market?
One thing to keep in mind during bear markets is that you aren't going to invest at the bottom. Buy stocks because you want to own the business for the long term, even if the share price goes down a little more after you buy. Build positions over time: This goes hand in hand with the previous tip.
There's something counterintuitive about investing in a bear market. When you jump into a plunging market, you must be willing to embrace the likelihood of further losses before you may see potentially greater returns when the bear finally yields to the bull.
If housing prices are down because real estate is in a bear market, you could be in a great position to bargain shop for properties. Even when the economy falls into a recession, people still need housing which could enable you to collect a steady flow of rental income.
And while almost all shares' value will drop during bearish times, the good ones will likely recover. This makes 'buying at the bottom' – successfully predicting as close as possible the nadir of a good stock during a bear market and buying it at its cheapest before it rebounds – a solid strategy.
Given this backdrop, it may be reasonable that a contingent cash account, or “cushion,” should cover one to two years of living expenses in addition to accounts used for regular spending. For both workers and retirees, a financial shock or a declining market environment can be emotional and cause anxiety.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
As shown above, recovery times vary widely and depend on the economic environment. When bear markets are not accompanied by recession, recoveries from bear markets only took an average of 10 months to reach a new record high.
Buy dividend stocks
Another way to hedge against bear markets is to invest in stocks that pay dividends over those that do not. Dividend-paying stocks usually outperform non-dividend-paying stocks — typically with less risk, according to 2022 research from Johnson Asset Management.
A bear market refers to a widespread decline in asset prices of at least 20% from recent highs. Clearly, these times are nothing to look forward to, but fighting back can be dangerous.
Some markets, such as bonds, defensive stocks and certain commodities like gold often perform well in bearish downturns. If you have the risk appetite for it, bear markets may also be an opportunity to short-sell if trading, making a profit if you predict correctly when prices will fall (and make a loss if you don't)
What defines the end of a bear market?
It defines a bear market as a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 from its previous peak. It ends when the index reaches its low before then going on to set a new high. S&P uses closing prices for its calculations.
Another option is to reduce your spending as much as you can during a bear market. This will allow you to withdraw less money from your portfolio when prices are down. Cutting spending isn't easy, but it may help you sleep better and get you through a period of high volatility.
Cash: Offers liquidity, allowing you to cover expenses or seize investment opportunities. Property: Can provide rental income and potential long-term appreciation, but selling might be difficult during an economic downturn.
During economic downturns you want to have as much cash on hand as possible. If it is not absolutely necessary, it may be best to delay any big-ticket purchases. Big purchases, such as a car or house, typically require you to either put down a large lump sum of cash or have a hefty ongoing payment.
Consider Defensive Stocks
Defensive stocks often have stable cash flows, strong balance sheets, and a history of paying dividends, offering potential stability during bear markets. Research and select companies with a track record of weathering economic downturns and adapting to changing market conditions.
Starting with the “tech wreck” in 2000, inflation totaled 35.7%, prolonging the real recovery in purchasing power an additional seven years and nine months. The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.
The shortest bear market lasted just 33 days, in the spring of 2020. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 21 bear markets (not including the current downturn). That's approximately one every 4.5 years, on average. The average length of a bear market is 388 days.
On Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged almost 22%. Black Monday, as the day is now known, marks the biggest single-day decline in stock market history.
The crash lasted until 1932, resulting in the Great Depression, a time in which stocks lost nearly 90% of their value. The Dow didn't fully recover until November of 1954.
As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).
Can you recover from a bear market?
And, importantly, bear markets often turn into bull markets quickly, with sizable gains occurring early in the recovery. In the last five bear market recoveries, the S&P 500 rose by an average of 25% in the first three months of the new bull market.
Selling off all your stocks after seeing red in your portfolio during a bear market is the last thing you want to do. Volatility is scary, especially if you are risk averse, but running with the volatility wave is key and beneficial to the success of your long-term portfolio.
If we take the 289-day average for bear markets into account, the S&P bear market could end in March 2023, and the S&P 500's could end in July next year. Of course, like all things stock market, there is a ton of uncertainty around the bear market, and it's impossible to predict when it will end for sure.
Watch for 20%: Market cycles are measured from peak to trough, so a stock index officially reaches bear territory when the closing price drops at least 20% from its most recent high (whereas a correction is a drop of 10%-19.9%). A new bull market begins when the closing price gains 20% from its low.
The Bottom Line
Panic selling, when the stock market is going down, can hurt your portfolio instead of helping it. There are many reasons why it's better for investors to not sell into a bear market and stay in for the long term.
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